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UNC needs win at UConn

After Duke loss, Tar Heels will make a statement 

Posted: Friday February 11, 2005 2:02PM; Updated: Friday February 11, 2005 2:02PM
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Marvin Williams
Marvin Williams has had a good start to his freshman season, averaging 13.2 points in ACC games.
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Every Friday, one reader challenges SI.com's Seth Davis in picking 10 weekend games. Check back each Tuesday to read Davis' Hoop Thoughts column and see how the two fared, and submit your picks for the next week.

This week's challenger is Ryan Kareraj of Gaithersburg, Md., whose favorite Radiators song is Grain of Salt.

Featured Game of the Week

No. 2 North Carolina at No. 19 UConn, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The bad news for North Carolina after the Duke loss is the Tar Heels committed 23 turnovers, shot 3-of-14 from 3-point range and looked completely lost in their halfcourt offense. The good news is despite all that, and despite playing against a Final Four-caliber team in a hostile environment, North Carolina lost by one point and had a chance to win at the end.

So let's not jump off the Carolina-will-win-it-all bandwagon just yet. Roy Williams has a month to make the necessary adjustments, and on a neutral court we all know this team still has serious chops. It is worth noting that North Carolina has now had two chances to beat a good opponent on the road and failed at both. (The other was a 95-82 loss at Wake Forest on Jan. 15.) Their best win was a 91-78 victory at home over Kentucky on Dec. 4. A win Sunday in Hartford would go a long way toward proving this team is worthy of the hype.

The biggest concern for North Carolina is the subpar play of Rashad McCants. Yes, Williams calls him the most "scrutinized and vilified" player he's ever had, but the fact is, McCants is shooting just 30.2 percent from 3-point range in ACC competition, and he has had exactly one 20-point game since hanging 28 on Kentucky. McCants promised he would be a better rebounder this season, but he's only grabbing 2.7 boards per conference game. He wasn't just bad Wednesday night (11 points on 3-of-13 shooting), he looked confused, even disinterested. It's almost like he doesn't know when he's supposed to Mr. Team Guy and when he's supposed to take over.

Time to take over, Rashad.

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UConn, meanwhile, is entering this game short-handed with its leading scorer, senior Rashad Anderson, out of action because of an infected abscess in his right leg. Anderson has been playing much better since Jim Calhoun decided to bring him off the bench five games ago, but he had only four points in the win at Syracuse last Saturday. That shows UConn can beat a good team without him, but it's still a lot easier with him.

This game will also feature arguably the two most talented freshmen in the country. UConn's Rudy Gay, a 6-foot-9 swingman, went for 18 points and seven rebounds against the 'Cuse, while North Carolina's Marvin Williams is the team's third-leading scorer in ACC games (13.2) while playing just 22.6 minutes off the bench. It's easy to say the team that gets a bigger performance from its stud freshman will have an advantage, but the more important matchup will occur between the two turnover-prone point guards, Raymond Felton and Marcus Williams. You've gotta like Felton there.

In fact, you have to like North Carolina's advantage on the perimeter, period. The Heels might have been exposed as a vulnerable halfcourt team against Duke, but UConn is even more suspect in the halfcourt. The Huskies will have to run with the Heels, which is exactly what the Heels want teams to do.

Mostly, I like the Heels for the simple reason that they lost to Duke. They're in dire need of a statement-win against a team playing without its leading scorer. If North Carolina had to split its two games this week, this one wouldn't have been the one they would choose to win. They'll take the win all the same.

Seth's Pick: North Carolina 92, UConn 82.

UNC is simply too good. Jawad Williams and Raymond Felton will put up big numbers and Sean May will limit Josh Boone, and UNC will pick up a big win on the road.

Reader's Pick: North Carolina 81, Connecticut 75

Click the button below for more of Seth's weekend picks.

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