UNC's Marvin Williams leads a lineup most NBA GMs would salivate over. Jamie Squire

In my business, the "experts" are supposed to make "picks." Yet, how can we be so wrong, so often -- especially when it comes to the NCAA tournament? The answer is obvious but seldom spoken: We're guessing, just like you.

Yes, I thought Syracuse had the chops to make it to the Final Four, before Vermont pulled a Mopa-Njila and sent the Orange packing. I thought Wake Forest would make it all the way to the championship game, but the Deacs were Pittsnogled in the second round. I didn't fare much better in my rejiggered Final Four picks last week: Though I picked Illinois to make the Final Four in my original bracket, I jumped off the bandwagon last week and switched to Arizona (though I still say I should get partial credit). And with Syracuse no longer an option, I pegged Duke to emerge from the Austin regional, though a spartan effort against Michigan State enabled Tom Izzo's squad to advance.

Since I am -- say it with me, everyone -- a Duke grad, it's only fitting that I was finished off in my season-long Pickoff Challenge by Garth Cooper of East Lansing, Mich., who edged me 6-2 to 5-3 in my Sweet 16 pickoff last week. Garth's performance lifted the readers to a 75-43 record, while I'm stuck at 72-46. With only two games to pick this weekend, I have been officially denied my One Shining Moment.

So congrats to all you readers (and especially the Radiators' fans) who participated in the Pickoff this year. As for who's going to win this weekend, the answer, as always, is: It depends. Thus, I'll provide the scenarios for each team to win, followed by the required expert guess -- er, prediction.

NORTH CAROLINA VS. MICHIGAN STATE

Three reasons to like North Carolina:
1. The NBA factor. If you asked an NBA general manager to take all the players from both teams and rank them according to pro potential, I'm guessing the top four are: Marvin Williams, Raymond Felton, Sean May and Rashad McCants. In case you haven't noticed, all play for North Carolina. Thus, it's not a tough leap to say that if the Heels play up to their potential, they'll win.

2. North Carolina has more margin for error. The Heels' weaknesses certainly were evident last week in Syracuse and have been all season: They turn the ball over too much and don't evince enough tenacity and toughness on defense. Still, there's something to be said for finding a way to win, and North Carolina's talent is so supreme it doesn't need to string together 40 quality minutes to dig out a victory. The Heels don't have to be near-perfect to win. Michigan State does.

3. Sean May. True, they don't go to him as much as they should (and by that I mean on every possession), but May is the best big man left in the tournament. If Michigan State has to pay too much attention to him, the Spartans leave other guys open. We know what those other guys can do.

Three reasons to like Michigan State:
1. Teamwork and athleticism. Just because one side has more talent doesn't make it the better team. Besides, it's not like the Spartans are lacking good players. North Carolina overwhelms many of its opponents with its athleticism, but that won't be the case Saturday night. In Shannon Brown, Maurice Ager, Alan Anderson, Kelvin Torbert and Chris Hill, the Spartans have the kind of high-flying wings to force Tar Heels' turnovers. More importantly, Michigan State can turn those miscues into quick buckets at the other end. North Carolina wants to run, but unlike most Heels' opponents, Michigan State has the legs to keep up.

2. The Spartans are tougher. This is what decides many Final Four games. Superior toughness -- both mental and physical -- certainly propelled the Spartans to the 2000 title. You can be sure Michigan State is going to try to come out and punch Carolina in the mouth right away, and you know Izzo will put together a first-rate defensive game plan. Michigan State has less margin for error, but that gives them a greater urgency on defense. There's no relaxing on this team.

3. Paul Davis. He's not quite May, but he's not the mercurial softie he's been in the past, either. Davis is the only player in the Final Four who can both bother May on defense and challenge him on offense. If he's as tough to deal with Saturday as he was last week in Austin, he could negate North Carolina's primary weapon.

The pick: North Carolina looked far from sharp last week, but talent eventually will win out. I also think Michigan State's perimeter-shooting is suspect. It won't be pretty, but the Heels will march on, 77-74.