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The winner will be ...

Questions abound when two dominant teams meet

Posted: Sunday April 3, 2005 7:49PM; Updated: Monday April 4, 2005 12:09PM
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Sean May
Sean May has averaged 21.6 and 10.8 rebounds in North Carolina's first five tournament games.
AP

As I watched Illinois turn a meager three-point halftime advantage into a comfortable 15-point win in Saturday's semifinal against Louisville, it was hard to fathom any team playing the game better. The Illini passed the ball with such precision, shot with such efficiency and defended with such lethality, they looked unbeatable.

Then came North Carolina's second-half performance against Michigan State. The Tar Heels erased their five-point halftime deficit inside of two minutes, then sprinted to a 16-point win. Watching the Heels score so quickly in transition, getting offensive production from all corners of the floor, it was hard to imagine any team playing the game better. The Heels looked, yes, unbeatable.

So that's what we're left with -- two unbeatable teams, facing off for the chance to hoist the championship trophy. Apparently, the basketball gods answered the pleas of my colleague Stewart Mandel and the rest of the hoops junkies around the globe. This season, this tournament, deserves this final matchup. Here are the five questions that will determine which unbeatable squad finally gets beaten. (Required expert prediction follows below.)

1. Will anyone score off Deron Williams?

Williams has demonstrated that smarts, strength and fundamentals are even more important than speed and quickness when it comes to locking up a big-time scorer. Over the last two games, Williams was assigned to cover two of the best offensive players in the country in Arizona's Salim Stoudamire and Louisville's Francisco Garcia. Those guys shot a combined 4-for-23 against him. I'm not sure why Dee Brown, and not Williams, was named the Big Ten's defensive player of the year, but I guarantee you Williams is the one defender Roy Williams will worry about most. I'm guessing Deron Williams will begin the game guarding Rashad McCants. It's important that McCants be aggressive from the start, just like he was against Michigan State. But if Williams shuts him down like he did Garcia, that will downgrade North Carolina from a great team to just a very good one.

2. Can Sean May be held to under 30 points?

Michigan State did a great job turning May into a non-factor -- for 20 minutes. But May had 18 of his 22 points in the second half, and his ability to pass out of the post made him that much more unguardable. (He finished with three assists, but he had several more "hockey assists," where the pass he made led to a pass that led to a basket.) The Spartans, however, rotated Paul Davis, Matt Trannon (a wide receiver on the football team) and Drew Naymick on May, and they got lots of help from their muscular perimeter teammates. Illinois doesn't have nearly that kind of size and strength inside. Remember, Arizona's Channing Frye went for 24 points against the Illini, and Ohio State's Terrence Dials also hurt them in their only loss of the season. In case you haven't noticed, May is better than either of those guys. He is capable of taking over this game, and if he does, Illinois' primary weakness will be its undoing.

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