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Freefalling

A few recent preseason polls have missed the mark

Posted: Wednesday August 17, 2005 1:40PM; Updated: Wednesday August 17, 2005 1:40PM
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LaVar Arrington
LaVar Arrington (11) and his third-ranked Penn State teammates made sure No. 4-ranked Arizona was sent home unhappy.
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Continuing on a theme from last week -- a particularly timely one -- today's primary topic involves preseason polls. It comes to us from Dave Kiffer of that noted college football hotbed, Ketchikan, Alaska:

Every year there are teams in the preseason top 20 that end up stinking. What do you think was the all-time greatest freefall?

As fascinating as it would be to dig up some team from the 1940s to bestow such a distinguished honor, I for one am not that old, and it would require an ungodly amount of research. I can, however, provide you with a list of the five most memorable flops in the seven years I've been covering the sport:

1. Alabama, 2000 (Started: No. 3, Finished: 3-8)
Expectations were sky-high coming off a surprising 10-3, SEC championship season. Unfortunately, no one bothered to tell the pollsters Shaun Alexander and Chris Samuels had graduated and Mike DuBose was still the Tide's head coach. Then again, how were we to know that Freddie Milons, 'Bama's star receiver a year earlier, would vanish. The Tide lost their opener to UCLA, got shut out by Southern Miss two weeks later, and DuBose was canned by the beginning of November.

2. Arizona, 1999 (Started: No. 4, Finished: 6-6)
Just to get to one of the most heavily anticipated season-openers in history -- the Pigskin Classic featuring LaVar Arrington and No. 3 Penn State against a fourth-ranked Wildcats team coming off a 12-1 season -- I took a frightening puddle-jumper flight into State College. Next, I drove an hour to the nearest available hotel in Altoona. I spent three hours in traffic the next morning and barely made kickoff, all to watch the Nittany Lions expose the Wildcats as complete frauds, 41-7. They fell out of the rankings before most of the other teams even played a game.

3. Oregon State, 2001 (Started: No. 1 by Sports Illustrated, Finished: 5-6)
I remember when that issue came out -- the "State of War" cover featuring sword-wielding Joey Harrington and Ken Simonton -- thinking, "Wrong Oregon school." While the Beavers were coming off an 11-1 season and a Fiesta Bowl stomping of Notre Dame, they'd lost more than half their starters. That flaw was exposed in a season-opening 44-24 loss to Fresno State. Sure enough, though the Ducks, with a veteran cast led by Harrington, went 11-1 and finished No. 2 in the country. Whoops.

4. Auburn, 2003 (Started: No. 1 by Sporting News, Finished: 8-5)
As it turns out, the experts were a year early in proclaiming the Tigers' greatness. Still, there's nothing more humbling than spending eight months anticipating a national-title run and losing your first two games by a combined score of 40-3. The preseason hype was based on Auburn's scary four-headed backfield, but lost in all the hoopla was the fact that only one player could touch the ball at any given time.

5. LSU, 1998 (Started: No. 9, Finished: 4-7)
On paper, the Tigers were a solid bet, with 15 starters back from a 9-3 season in which they'd knocked off then No. 1 Florida. But there's this little thing called chemistry that tends to get thrown out of whack when your star running back, Cecil "The Diesel" Collins, gets thrown off the team for fondling underage women, numerous others get arrested or suspended, and your head coach makes the ill-advised decision to bring in disgraced Illinois coach Lou Tepper as his new D-coordinator. That season marked the beginning of the end for Gerry DiNardo.

None of last season's best examples -- Kansas State (started No. 12, finished 4-7), Missouri (started No. 18, finished 5-6), Clemson (started No. 15, finished 6-5) or West Virginia (started No. 10, finished 8-4) -- were quite as dramatic, so history suggests we're due for a colossal bust this season. Any guesses?

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