Time to re-evaluate preseason predictions gone awry

	At 3-2, QB Reggie McNeal and the Aggies have hardly lived up to their preseason billing as a "surprise team." AP
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I've never claimed to be a psychic. And I accept the inherent risk that comes with publishing one's predictions about an inherently unpredictable sport for all the world to see. But on the occasion of Sports Illustrated's midseason report this week, I find myself looking back and realizing that the first half of the 2005 season has played out about as opposite of the way I foresaw things than any other season I can remember.

Following an extensive review of every article I wrote this offseason, I can take heart in a few, small victories -- trumping Alabama and Oregon as dark horses, hinting at Michigan's and Tennessee's demises -- but, like a coach, it's the losses that stick with you. So, despite knowing full well this may ruin my last remaining strands of credibility, I thought it might be fun to revisit some of my more blatant summer blunders in an attempt to figure out where I went wrong. I realize it's going to be a tad embarrassing, but hey, it's cheaper than therapy.

• Rose Bowl projection: USC vs. Ohio State (8/31/05)

Plain and simple, I got duped. Here I was, getting all excited about the way the Buckeyes' offense came alive at the end of the last season, never considering that they did it against some pretty shoddy defenses (Michigan State, Michigan and Oklahoma State). Put 'em up against Texas and Penn State and ... hmm, not so dangerous after all.

• "I have this sneaking suspicion Florida State is on the verge of a Penn State-like [tumble]. ... The 'Noles could very easily finish 7-4, or even 6-5 overall." (7/12/05)

It seemed so obvious at the time. FSU had already endured four straight sub-par seasons (by its standards) and would now be fielding one of its most inexperienced teams in recent memory. I underestimated coach Bobby Bowden and his staff. They've shaken off the heavy personnel losses, put faith in freshmen, like quarterback Drew Weatherford and receiver Greg Carr, and earned tough victories over Miami and Boston College en route to a 5-0 start.

• Surprise team: Texas A&M. The Aggies improved from 4-8 to 7-5 in Dennis Franchione's second season. This year should be even better." (8/31/05)

This one's downright puzzling. A&M returned veterans at nearly every position, most notably quarterback. It improved considerably from 2003 to '04. Yet for whatever reason, the Aggies' development has completely stalled. The defense hasn't gotten any better, and even Reggie McNeal and the offense have been terrible in their first two Big 12 games. Asked after last weekend's 41-20 loss to Colorado what A&M's problem is, McNeal responded, "I have no idea." Well, that makes two of us.

• "[Dave] Wannstedt could wind up being one of the best hires of any school this offseason." (7/12/05)

I can't even bring myself to talk about this one. Next ...

• [Joe] Tiller is a proven offensive mind and ... I'm as excited as anyone outside of West Lafayette to see his new wrinkles this season." (5/3/05)

Apparently those wrinkles involved turning a once-promising defense into one of the worst in the country. Also, as Tiller himself said this week in response to a question about offensive schemes, "The system is fine, but it's better when you've got a great player under center." Senator, I served with Kyle Orton. Kyle Orton was a friend of mine. Senator -- Brandon Kirsch -- you're no Kyle Orton.

Last but not least:

• "I think it's great that Penn State has these freshmen skill players coming in, I'm just not confident Joe Paterno knows how to use them." (numerous radio talk shows, all summer long)

As I wrote in Sports Illustrated this week, Paterno deserves all the credit in the world for reinventing himself at 78. Five years ago, JoePa would have wigged out at the mere mention of running the quarterback out of the shotgun. Now he's doing that and more with Michael Robinson, and, as a result, the Nittany Lions will far exceed my preseason prediction of 7-4.

Of course, the beauty of the Internet is, even when your preseason predictions turn out to be less reliable than Oklahoma's offensive line ... they still give you another crack at it.

As a Notre Dame alum, I've got a question: Does Notre Dame really have any chance this weekend? I'm not buying the hype. We have yet to beat a team ranked in the top 25 (that's still ranked there). Our pass defense is the fourth-worst in the nation, going against the No. 4 passing offense. I see this as a disaster, and another 45-13 shellacking.
--Zach Little, Seattle

I agree that, on paper, it's a total mismatch. But they don't play games on paper. They play it in a stadium, in this case Notre Dame Stadium, which is going to be absolutely rocking on Saturday. That's the main reason I definitely think the Irish have a chance. (That, and they're the first team USC has played this season that has both a powerful and balanced offense). People always focus on Xs and Os and numbers while downplaying intangibles, which, in the college game, play a huge role. Anyone who watched the Ohio State-Penn State game could tell how the crowd and the atmosphere played a factor. And while the Trojans probably have more mental fortitude than any team in the country, they certainly showed in the first halves of the Oregon and Arizona State games that they're human. I still think USC will win, but I don't think it will be the disaster you're fearing.