'Other' unbeatens likely need USC or Texas to lose

	The Number of Undefeateds (teams, from automatic-qualifying conferences only, that were unbeaten at the time of the first and last BCS standings) Yr. First BCS standings Last BCS standings 2005 7 ? 2004 5 3 2003 3 0 2002 7 2 2001 7 1 2000 4 1 1999 5* 2 1998 6* 1 * -- First BCS standings weren't released until the last Monday of October.
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Based on the first BCS standings released Monday, USC and Texas appear to have a stranglehold on the Nos. 1 and 2 spots if they both continue winning. In fact, the gap between the No. 2 Longhorns and No. 3 Virginia Tech (.0457) is actually larger than the one between the Trojans and Texas (.0287).

The Longhorns currently hold commanding leads over the Hokies in both the Harris (129 points among 113 voters) and Coaches' (64 points out of 62 voters) polls, and have an average computer ranking of second, compared with fourth for the Hokies. Many have theorized that Virginia Tech, with what appears to be a stronger remaining schedule (games against 6-1 Boston College and 5-1 Miami and a potential ACC title date against 5-1 Florida State), would surpass Texas (which faces 6-0 Texas Tech this week in its last scheduled game against a current top-25 team) if both were to win out. That may have been true under the old BCS formula, where strength of schedule was its own component, but under the new system, where two human polls account for 66 percent of the equation, Virginia Tech (as well as fellow undefeateds Georgia and Alabama) are likely helpless unless USC or Texas lose or unexpectedly drop down in voters' ballots.

"The poll margin is enormous," said Jerry Palm of CollegeBCS.com. "Virginia Tech would have to be two spots ahead of Texas in the computers to get close. They need to hope those poll margins erode."

No. 4 Georgia and No. 5 Alabama have tough remaining schedules as well, but have less control over their national-title fates than two lower-ranked unbeatens, No. 7 Texas Tech and No. 9 UCLA, because the Red Raiders get to play Texas on Saturday and the Bruins have a Dec. 3 showdown with the Trojans.

Of course, all such speculation at this point is extremely premature. Because of head-to-head matchups, the maximum number of possible undefeated teams at the end of the season is four, and last year's USC-Oklahoma-Auburn controversy notwithstanding, history says there will likely be even fewer by Dec. 4. This year marks the third time in the past five seasons that the first BCS standings have included seven undefeated teams from the six automatic-qualifying conferences. The last time it happened, in 2002, only two, Miami and Ohio State, finished the regular season unscathed. In 2001, only Miami did.

In fact, of the seven BCS title games to date, four have included at least one team with a loss. So while much of the talk for now centers on the seven undefeated teams, at least two one-loss teams -- No. 6 LSU and No. 8 Miami -- remain very much alive, particularly considering the Tigers still face No. 5 Alabama and, potentially, No. 4 Georgia in the SEC title game, while the 'Canes go up against the third-ranked Hokies on Nov. 5.

Neither Miami nor anyone else, however, can truly start dreaming until the Trojans and/or Longhorns lose.

Stewart Mandel covers college sports for SI.com.