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Bowl Projections

Alabama's loss could keep Oregon out of BCS

Posted: Monday November 14, 2005 11:08AM; Updated: Monday November 14, 2005 5:35PM
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Will Jeremiah Johnson and UO be left out?
Will Jeremiah Johnson and UO be left out?
Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

Alabama's loss to LSU shook up this week's projections -- at the expense of Oregon. Last week, I had a Penn State-Oregon Fiesta Bowl, but if the Crimson Tide finish with one loss but don't win the SEC, I'd imagine the Fiesta will jump at the chance to stage a Notre Dame-Alabama matchup. The Orange would then grab Penn State to face Miami in an equally glamorous showdown, thus squeezing the one-loss Ducks out of the BCS.

If the Tide loses to Auburn on Saturday, however, it's hard to imagine the Fiesta taking a team that ended its season on a two-game losing streak. In that event, the Fiesta's doors would open back up to the Ducks or Ohio State (if it beats Michigan next week).

As it stands now, with two BCS teams, the SEC could have as many as three unfilled spots further down its lineup, good news for the likely extra teams in the ACC, MAC and WAC. Despite Florida's loss to South Carolina, the Gators are still a good bet to play on New Year's Day -- they haven't been to Orlando's game in six years, and if they beat Florida State, they'll be coming in with momentum. Meanwhile, the Outback in Tampa would love to bring Steve Spurrier back to the Sunshine State.

Stewart Mandel's Bowl Projections
Date Game/Matchup
Jan. 4 Rose: USC (BCS No. 1) vs. Texas (BCS No. 2)
Jan. 3 Orange: Miami (ACC champ) vs. Penn State (Big Ten champ)
Jan. 2 Sugar: LSU (SEC champ) vs. West Virginia (Big East champ)
Jan. 2 Fiesta: Notre Dame (BCS at-large) vs. Alabama (BCS at-large)
Jan. 2 Capital One: Ohio State (Big Ten No. 2) vs. Florida (SEC No. 2)
Jan. 2 Gator: Virginia Tech (ACC No. 2) vs. Louisville (Big East No. 2)
Jan. 2 Outback: Michigan (Big Ten No. 3) vs. South Carolina (SEC)
Jan. 2 Cotton: Texas Tech (Big 12 No. 2) vs. Georgia (SEC)
Dec. 31 Liberty: UTEP (C-USA champ) vs. Georgia Tech (at-large)
Dec. 31 Houston: Iowa State (Big 12) vs. TCU (at-large*)
Dec. 31 Meineke: Virginia (ACC) vs. USF (Big East)
Dec. 30 Peach: Florida State (ACC No. 3) vs. Auburn (SEC)
Dec. 30 Music City: Northwestern (Big Ten No. 6) vs. Bowling Green (at-large*)
Dec. 30 Independence: Missouri (Big 12) vs. Maryland (at-large*)
Dec. 30 Sun: UCLA (Pac-10 No. 3) vs. Iowa (Big Ten No. 5)
Dec. 29 Holiday: Oregon (Pac-10 No. 2) vs. Colorado (Big 12 No. 3)
Dec. 29 Emerald: Nevada (at-large**) vs. New Mexico (MWC No. 2)
Dec. 28 Alamo: Wisconsin (Big Ten No. 4) vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 No. 4)
Dec. 28 MPC Computers: Boise State (WAC) vs. Clemson (ACC)
Dec. 27 Insight: Arizona State (Pac-10 No. 4) vs. Rutgers (Big East)
Dec. 27 Champs Sports: Boston College (ACC) vs. Nebraska (Big 12)
Dec. 26 Motor City: Miami of Ohio (MAC No. 2) vs. Minnesota (Big Ten No. 7)
Dec. 24 Hawaii: Southern Miss (C-USA No. 3) vs. Fresno State (WAC)
Dec. 23 Fort Worth: Tulsa (C-USA No. 4) vs. Louisiana Tech (at-large***)
Dec. 22 Poinsettia: Colorado State (MWC) vs. Navy (at-large)
Dec. 22 Las Vegas: Cal (Pac-10 No. 5) vs. BYU (MWC No. 1)
Dec. 21 GMAC: UCF (C-USA No. 2) vs. Toledo (MAC)
Dec. 20 New Orleans: Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt No. 1) vs. Houston (C-USA)
* -- in place of SEC
** -- in place of Pac-10 No. 6
*** -- in place of Big 12 No. 8

Notes:
• Non-BCS bowls do not have to pick in order of conference standing (i.e. "Big Ten No. 2" means second choice of Big Ten teams, not second-place Big Ten team.
• Only teams .500 or above were considered.
• In conferences with two divisions, the team with the best overall record was used as the projected champion.
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