Posted: Thursday November 17, 2005 2:16PM; Updated: Thursday November 17, 2005 2:16PM
Sam Keller had the Sun Devils off to a promising start, but after a season-ending thumb injury to their starting QB, Arizona State's seen its season head south.
Stephen Dunn/Getty Images
MAILBAG
Submit a question or an opinion to Stewart.
They started the season with visions of conference championships, top-10 rankings and glamorous bowl berths. Two months later, these six teams' seasons have disintegrated in a blaze of disappointment, leaving many fighting just to become bowl-eligible, and in every case, raising questions about the direction of their programs.
What went wrong? Can the season be salvaged? And what long-term fixes need to be made? Let's take a closer look at the biggest collapses of 2005:
Arizona State
Record: 5-5, 3-4 Pac-10
The tumble: The Sun Devils, 9-3 a year ago and a preseason top-20 team, started the season with promise, nearly upsetting top-five teams LSU and USC, but have lost four of their past six and need to beat rival Arizona -- which upset ASU a year ago -- to become bowl-eligible. Fifth-year coach Dirk Koetter, whose handling of troubled ex-running back Loren Wade came into question after the player was charged with murder last March and who has admitted to intentionally lying about the condition of injured quarterback Sam Keller, could be on the hot seat.
What went wrong: It didn't help that Keller, who started the season on a tear (16 touchdowns, two interceptions his first four games), suffered a thumb injury in week six and was subsequently lost for the season, but you can't blame his replacement -- redshirt freshman Rudy Carpenter is completing 74 percent of his passes. Things simply haven't been the same since ASU blew a 21-3 halftime lead against the Trojans on Oct. 1. As in past seasons, Koetter's high-powered passing attack has been offset by a lackluster running game (3.8 yards per carry) and disappointing defense (471.6 yards per game allowed, 115th out of 117 teams nationally).
Can 2005 be salvaged?: Not really. A win over Arizona on Nov. 25 will only garner a trip to the Insight or Las Vegas bowls, a far cry from the BCS possibilities tossed around earlier in the season.
Long-term fix: Koetter needs to rethink his offense if ASU hopes to join the Pac-10's upper echelon. While it's certainly proven capable of producing gaudy passing numbers, it's also a high-risk system (see Keller's four interceptions against USC) that, without a solid ground component, keeps the Sun Devils' defense on the field far too long. The defense obviously has its issues as well, but the unit's biggest weakness this season -- its front four -- will be helped next year by the arrival of transfers Loren Howard (Northwestern), Michael Marquardt (BYU) and Tranell Morant (Florida).
Michigan State
Record: 5-5, 2-5 Big Ten
The tumble: After starting the season 4-0, including a 47-44 upset of Notre Dame, and rising from unranked to No. 11 in the AP Poll, the Spartans have dropped five of six, including blowout defeats to Northwestern (49-14) and Minnesota (41-18) and a loss to previously winless-in-the-Big-Ten, Purdue. A loss to No. 5 Penn State in Saturday's regular-season finale dooms third-year coach John L. Smith to his second consecutive losing season, putting him squarely on the hot seat in 2006.
What went wrong: Horrendous special teams play has dogged the Spartans all season, most notably in a 35-24 loss at Ohio State on Oct. 15 that marked the beginning of MSU's downward spiral. The Drew Stanton-led spread offense was powerful enough in the first four games (49 points per contest) to overcome a young, overmatched defense (95th in the country). As the season has worn on, opponents have been able to slow down the Spartans' running game, rendering the offense one-dimensional.
Can 2005 be salvaged: Yes. If Michigan State can upset the Nittany Lions and win their bowl game, it would certainly return some momentum to the program.
Long-term fix: Smith is a proven offensive coach, but he has to start paying more attention to the defensive side of things -- particularly in recruiting -- if the Spartans plan on becoming Big Ten contenders. In three seasons, Smith's defenses have failed to finish higher than 62nd nationally. Some questionable coaching decisions -- including a couple flat-out blunders (like a miscommunication that sent the field-goal team out prematurely just before halftime against Ohio State, resulting in a block) -- have also hurt them. Some staff changes may be in order.
Texas A&M
Record: 5-5, 3-4 Big 12
The tumble: A preseason top-20 team with 17 returning starters, the Aggies lost their opener at Clemson on a last-second field goal, got blown out at Colorado and have lost three straight to Iowa State (42-14), Texas Tech (56-17) and Oklahoma (36-30). A loss to No. 2 Texas would seal the second losing season in three years under coach Dennis Franchione, a major step back for the previously masterful program rebuilder.
What went wrong: Some might say A&M's slide began last season, when a 6-1 team lost four of its last five, including a 38-7 Cotton Bowl stomping by Tennessee. Injuries have played a factor (12 players, including two key receivers and top linebacker Lee Foliaki, have been lost for the season), but an already shaky defense has gotten even worse this season, ranking 109th nationally. QB Reggie McNeal, following a breakthrough junior season, has struggled with some of the spread-option concepts the staff installed this offseason.
Can 2005 be salvaged: Sure. Ruining the hated Longhorns' national title hopes would ease the pain considerably.
Long-term fix: Clearly, something has to change defensively, and coordinator Carl Torbush, who's been with Franchione since Alabama, will likely be the scapegoat. All indications are Franchione has recruited well, and the one positive to the Aggies' injury rash has been that a lot of young players -- A&M starts 12 freshmen and sophomores -- have gained valuable experience. Franchione has a solid nucleus to build around, but frustrated Aggie fans will expect drastic improvement as soon as next season.
Tennessee
Record: 4-5, 2-4 SEC
The tumble: Coming off consecutive 10-win seasons and an SEC East title, the nation's preseason No. 3 has set a litany of lows for the 13-year Phillip Fulmer era, becoming the first Tennessee team since 1988 to lose four conference games and four consecutive games and the first since 1992 to lose to South Carolina. After barely edging out Memphis last week (20-16), the Vols need to beat Vanderbilt and Kentucky to continue their 16-year bowl streak.
What went wrong: While the Vols' highly touted defense has largely played as advertised, the offense has been absolutely horrendous, ranking 100th nationally. Fulmer has juggled quarterbacks Rick Clausen and Erik Ainge on a near-weekly basis, running back Gerald Riggs Jr. failed to replicate his junior-year production before going down with a season-ending injury, the line has been hampered by penalties and the receivers have dropped a ton of passes.
Can 2005 be salvaged: Nope. Winning out would save the embarrassment of a losing season, but a Music City Bowl berth is hardly in line with Tennessee fans' expectations.
Long-term fix: Offensive coordinator Randy Sanders has already resigned. Whoever Fulmer taps as his replacement -- Sanders' predecessor, David Cutcliffe, is the leading candidate -- needs to be allowed the leeway to significantly overhaul the Vols' system. Tennessee has finished in the bottom half of the country in total offense three of the past four years. Personnel-wise, Fulmer began addressing the deficiencies with last year's top-ranked recruiting class.