Ducks likely to end up in Tempe against Irish

	Troy Smith led the Buckeyes to a last-second win over Michigan on Saturday, but Ohio State will likely be shut out of the BCS. Tom Pidgeon/Getty Images

With Alabama out of contention and Virginia Tech back in the driver's seat for the ACC's automatic berth, there were really only three realistic choices -- Oregon (10-1), Notre Dame (8-2) and Ohio State (9-2) -- to consider for the two BCS at-large berths. And since the Irish are a mortal lock for one of them if they beat Stanford on Saturday, the question really is, Ducks or Buckeyes? I don't know the answer -- and I don't think Fiesta Bowl officials do yet, either.

Much will depend on what the Fiesta does with its first pick (this is under the assumption Texas reaches the Rose Bowl). If it takes Penn State (10-1), obviously Big Ten rival Ohio State is out of the question. If, however, the Fiesta takes the Irish, they'll face a tough decision for Notre Dame's opponent. My guess, as of this week, is they'll go with the Ducks, because they have a better record, and because the Buckeyes would be playing in Tempe for the third time in four years.

Meanwhile, Auburn's win over Alabama had a ripple effect on the SEC projections. The Tigers (9-2) likely locked up a berth to the Capital One Bowl and sent the Tide (9-2) to the Cotton, which creates a domino effect that sends Florida tumbling all the way to Shreveport. That could change, however, if the Gators beat Florida State on Saturday.

One other intriguing bowl storyline involves Fresno State (8-2), which, following its near-upset of USC, will be very attractive to the Liberty Bowl for its at-large opening. The WAC would gladly free up the Bulldogs to go to the higher-paying game since it already has three other eligible teams from which to fill the league's two spots in the MPC Computers and Hawaii bowls.