Bellamy Road is a huge favorite to win the Derby, with odds of 5-to-2. John Iacono/SI
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Bellamy Road might be the next Super Horse, the Secretariat clone the racing world has been seeking for more than three decades. He looked like it when he romped to a 17½-length victory in the April 9 Wood Memorial and broke a respected track record. He has looked like it this week at Churchill Downs, carrying all of his 17-hand size regally, galloping -- dare we say it -- like a tremendous machine in the early-morning gloaming.

There is every reason to believe Bellamy Road will win the Kentucky Derby and threaten to do what War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones narrowly failed to do: win horse racing's first Triple Crown since Affirmed edged Alydar in 1978.

If that happens, I will chronicle the achievement in Sports Illustrated and SI.com and enjoy every history-making minute. But for purposes of picking Saturday's 131st running of the Kentucky Derby, I'm taking another view. I'm looking at reasons why Bellamy Road might not win the race.

• He has run only two races as a 3-year-old. The last horse to win the Derby with two starts at age 3 was Sunny's Halo in 1983, and before that, Jet Pilot in 1947. Bellamy Road is an inexperienced horse, despite his precocity.

• In winning his two races this spring by a combined total of more than 33 lengths, Bellamy Road has been galloping alone on the racetrack, without competition. As owner John Fort, who will send 20-to-1 shot Coin Silver to the post, said Thursday, "[Bellamy Road] hasn't been in any fistfights.''

• The pace in the Derby will be fast. It almost always is. The last exception to this rule was three years ago when 17 riders let War Emblem loose on the lead and he rolled home first under a stunned Victor Espinoza. "Bellamy Road needs the War Emblem trip,'' says trainer Bob Baffert, who trained the latter.

But, says Nick Zito, Bellamy Road's trainer, "Bellamy Road isn't War Emblem.''

That's true. Bellamy Road looks to be better than War Emblem, but he won't get the same easy pace War Emblem did because the owners of the dangerous Bandini, Englishmen Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith, have entered Spanish Chestnut as a rabbit to force a fast pace on the front end. Bellamy Road won't get an easy lead. He might be able to sit comfortably behind Spanish Chestnut. Or he might have to fight for the lead, in which case he'll get too tired to stay there.

I'm betting on some degree of the latter. Bellamy Road looks to be good enough to run a long way fast, but maybe not if the pace is hot and when he's running 10 furlongs for the first time. And don't forget, High Limit will be near the front, too, pushing and creating a fistfight. Eventually, Bellamy Road will yield just enough to open the race for closers. So I'm picking:

1) Afleet Alex
The Arkansas Derby winner has fought numerous fistfights, including a win in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga last summer and a tough second to Wilko in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Afleet Alex is a nimble, athletic horse, much like Smarty Jones was. He's fast and tough, the perfect animal for the multiple slick moves often needed to win the Derby.

2) Bandini
His eight-length romp in the Blue Grass Stakes was every bit as impressive as Afleet Alex's victory in Arkansas. Spanish Chestnut will help Bandini, but this is a still-developing colt, and I'm guessing he hasn't developed quite as much as the more experienced Afleet Alex. Watch out for him in the Preakness.

3) Don't Get Mad
Even trainer Ron Ellis doesn't know for sure how B. Wayne Hughes' colt will bounce back after winning the Derby Trial just seven days before the Derby. Here's thinking the horse can duplicate the huge finishing move off the turn and catch Bellamy Road to hit the board.