Afleet Alex has potential to dominate at Belmont -- were it not for the heavy pace in Kentucky, he'd be going for the Triple Crown. Bill Frakes/SI
	SI.com's Belmont Stakes coverage Beech: Patience pays off for Afleet Alex Layden: Belmont is both blessed and cursed Beech: Classic moments in Belmont history Layden: It takes a horse with endurance to win SI Players: What a jockey (and horse) eats

The Belmont Stakes a curious horse race. It's a grinding mile-and-a-half -- longer than most American racehorses will be asked to run again in their lives. Unlike the Kentucky Derby (or, to a lesser extent, the Preakness), it brings together horses at vastly different stages of competitive development.

Some -- this year, just two, Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo and Preakness winner Afleet Alex -- have run both legs of the Triple Crown and arrive in New York to finish a grueling spring campaign. Some ran only the Kentucky Derby and then rested for the Belmont. Others come into the race having never considered the first two legs of the Triple Crown. In many ways, it is the ultimate interleague game.

Additionally, when a Triple Crown is at stake, jockeys become mad competitive. Not that they are shrinking violets in the third at Finger Lakes (they're not), but witness the relay of sprinting challenges Smarty Jones had to fend off in the first half of last year's race before fading down the stretch and losing to the closing Birdstone. No jockey wants to ride a beaten horse when the Triple Crown finally goes down. This year there is no Triple Crown at stake; from a riding perspective the Belmont becomes what it has often been: the ultimate test of riders' ability to judge pace.

"You can't make that big move when you normally make it, because you won't get to the finish,'' says Tim Ritchey, Afleet Alex's trainer. Triple Crown or not, the Belmont is a riders' race.

Often, too, it is considered with inaccurate perception that deep closers such as Giacomo have an advantage. Longer race, longer-running horse -- or so goes the thinking. In fact, in 14 of the past 20 Belmonts, the race was won by a horse that ran either in or near the lead in the early going. Only when there is pace up front can a closer win, and there is seldom pace in the Belmont. (There was pace a year ago, and it cooked Smarty Jones).

Standing underneath shade trees on the Belmont backside Friday morning, John Shirreffs, who trains the pace-needy Giacomo, said, "I think there will be pace. I'm confident that there will be.'' It's hard to say if he's merely dreaming. Nobody knows what will happen until the gate opens. Here's my best guess:

1) Afleet Alex
If not for a stop-and-go trip in the Derby (which was mitigated somewhat by jockey Jeremy Rose's brilliant race-riding), Alex would be running for a Triple Crown in the Belmont. Had he not clipped heels with gelding Scrappy T in the Preakness -- creating a highlight moment for the ages, a fair trade -- he probably would have won that race by 10 lengths or more. He will go off at even money or better in the Belmont, and it's difficult to argue that he's not the best 3-year-old in training, much less the best 3-year-old entered in the race. (Excluding the blindingly fast sprinter Lost In The Fog and rehabbing Bellamy Road). Alex is patient enough to relax behind any pace, nimble enough to take control with a minimum of effort and fast enough to extend quickly. He will be near the pace and, barring a breakthrough effort by another horse, he could win by double-digit lengths, becoming the first Preakness-Belmont winner since the powerful Point Given in 2001.

2) Pinpoint
A small slice of retribution for trainer Nick Zito, who will hit the board for the first time in 11 Triple Crown starts this year alone. That's a career for some trainers. That's a career for some three trainers. Pinpoint won the 1 1/16-mile Sir Barton Stakes on Preakness Day at Pimlico and looks to have the tactical speed to stay close. If the pace is relatively slow up front -- which it should be -- Pinpoint should be able to hold together for second while looking at a fast-diminishing view of Afleet Alex's hind quarters.

3) Giacomo
Say this for the Derby winner: He never runs a bad race. He's been loaded into the gate five times this year and came out with on victory, a second, two thirds and a fourth. The total distance of his defeats is 20 lengths, and that includes the Preakness, when jockey Mike Smith secured third place and eased him home comfortably. Shirreffs said Friday that Giacomo never has been better, diminished little by the rigors of the Triple Crown grind. He's a decent, willing horse, but he needs a fast pace in order to run down tired opponents. It's not likely he will get that in the Belmont, but he will be running at the end. He'll hit the board in all three Triple Crown races, which is no shame.