Phillies closer Billy Wagner has 43 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings this season. Al Tielemans/SI
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Both 2004 World Series clubs made deals at or after the trading deadline last year. The Red Sox dealt away shortstop Nomar Garciaparra and acquired Doug Mientkiewicz and Orlando Cabrera in a three-way deal, while St. Louis added Larry Walker on Aug. 7. Will another blockbuster this year put a contender in the Series?

Marlins right-hander A.J. Burnett could have that effect. Or maybe another Nomar kind of deal will take baseball by surprise. As the clock ticks toward the July 31 trading deadline, Burnett heads the list of the 10 most important players on the trade market.

1. A.J. Burnett, RHP, Florida
The Marlins would be wise to ship him and the declining (and expensive) Mike Lowell to the Orioles for pitchers Hayden Penn and Jorge Julio and outfielder Larry Bigbie. The White Sox, who are dangling Jose Contreras, also are interested, but Burnett can keep the Orioles in the AL East race while the underachieving Marlins will get good value for a pitcher bound to leave them via free agency. Baltimore believes it has a chance to convince Burnett, who has ties to the area, to remain beyond this year. As the Mets proved with Kris Benson last year, rentals sometimes can be keepers.

2. Jason Schmidt, RHP, Giants
Would you take Contreras for Schmidt? Only if you decided that Schmidt's drop in velocity is a long-term issue that makes his $10.5 million option for next season too expensive. San Francisco hasn't given up hope of running down the Padres in the NL West -- though historically speaking, nobody comes back from 13 games below .500 at the All-Star break to make the postseason -- so the Giants are more likely to keep Schmidt and deal off the edges of their roster (Ray Durham, Brett Tomko, Edgardo Alfonzo, etc.).

3. Billy Wagner, LHP, Phillies
The Red Sox say they won't trade infielder Hanley Ramirez or pitchers Jon Lester, Jon Papelbon and Manny Delcarman, the jewels of their system who are close to being major league ready. That means no deal with Philadelphia. The Phillies still aren't out of the wacky NL East race, so they'll need to be overwhelmed to move Wagner, a free agent after the season.

4. Adam Dunn, OF, Reds
Scouts are divided on Dunn's future, with some preferring to take the next 10 years of Wily Mo Pena's career. There's no denying Dunn's power, but his defense, his inability to hit left-handers and his strikeouts (he whiffs once every three at-bats with runners in scoring position) trouble some scouts. Still, he's only 25, has great plate discipline and should have very good value toward restocking Cincinnati's pitching depth. He'd be a great fit for his hometown Astros, though their supply of young pitchers seems to be running out.

5. Randy Winn, Mariners
The Yankees have been calling about Winn for two months and still have yet to hear any substantive feedback from Seattle. GM Bill Bavasi, burned repeatedly in the free-agent market (Rich Aurilia, Scott Spiezio, Adrian Beltre), may be shy about pulling the trigger, but this is exactly when Bavasi must be aggressive. He should be ready to move Winn and pitchers Jamie Moyer and Eddie Guardado.