Aside from his contributions with his bat, it is Alex Rodriguez's outstanding defense that sets him apart from DH David Ortiz. John W. McDonough/SI
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Close MVP races are often decided in September, the month that matters most to voters. Just ask Chipper Jones (1999), Jason Giambi (2000), Miguel Tejada (2002) and Vladimir Guerrero (2004), all of whom won in recent years by coming up "clutch" in September. With three weeks to play, no such drama exists in the NL, where Albert Pujols is the best player in the league among contending teams and should finally win the award.

The AL race, however, leaves open the possibility that the final three weeks will decide the winner. Guerrero of the Angels, David Ortiz of the Red Sox and Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees -- born seven months apart -- are the leading candidates. Paul Konerko of the White Sox and Travis Hafner of the Indians deserve consideration. Konerko, though, didn't hit early when the Sox were red hot and, like Andruw Jones, has failed too often with runners in scoring position. Hafner can't be found among the league leaders in RBIs or total bases, which is no way to win the MVP for a guy who doesn't play defense.

Is there time for Guerrero, Ortiz and Rodriguez to nail down the award with a handful of game-winning hits? Sure. Ortiz, in fact, added to his reputation as a monster clutch hitter with another game-winning jack to beat the Blue Jays on Monday. But understand this: the award is Rodriguez's to lose. As long as he doesn't go Tony Womack on the Yankees in their final 20 games, Rodriguez will become the franchise's first MVP since Don Mattingly in 1985. (A-Rod is off to a .324 start this month.)

How do I know this? There are at least half a dozen good reasons:

1. Rodriguez has had the best season statistically. He leads the league in runs, home runs, total bases and slugging, and is second to teammate Giambi in on-base percentage. He's been on base 15 more times than Ortiz and 40 more than Guerrero. He's started every game this year and hit 26 percent more home runs at Yankee Stadium (24) than any right-handed hitter in the history of the famed ballpark.

2. At such a late stage in the season his MVP does not hinge on whether the Yankees get into the postseason. New York may not make the playoffs, but it will play meaningful games probably to the final week of the season.

3. He's been good enough in the clutch. Ortiz is the gold standard for clutch hitters because of his knack for hitting home runs, not just singles, in big spots. But the idea that Rodriguez doesn't come through often enough in big spots is a myth. Let's look at how the Big Three have done entering this week in close-and-late situations (seventh inning or later in a tie or one-run game, or with the potential tying run at least on deck):

Rodriguez is just as tough an out in a big spot as Ortiz -- actually, a little tougher if you read on-base percentage as the percentage of time the batter wins the war against the pitcher. The numbers do show that Ortiz is better at delivering the big blow -- the best in the game, in fact. But don't discount Rodriguez's work in key spots.

4. Ortiz doesn't play defense. There is no way to understate this. The guy is half a player. He is a specialist. He can devote his entire energies to his at-bats. There is a good reason why no position player ever has won the MVP with fewer than 97 games played in the field (Don Baylor, 1979). A DH would have to be miles better than the next best player who actually contributes to his team in both halves of the game. Is Ortiz having that kind of a season over Rodriguez? No. Meanwhile, Rodriguez, after a shaky start, has provided Gold Glove quality defense at third base, once running off the longest errorless streak among all AL third basemen over the past seven years.