The ultimate guide to the baseball amateur draft

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	Frank Thomas, the seventh overall pick of the 1989 draft, is one of many college first baseman who have had Hall of Fame-caliber careers. Eliot J. Schechter/Getty Images

By Rany Jazayerli, BaseballProspectus.com

When this draft series started over a year ago (gulp), I tried to summarize my findings as handy Draft Rules, capitalized, that every team should obey. At least until it turned out that the calculus of the draft changed from the 1980s to the 1990s, and the new rules contradicted the old rules. Suddenly the Draft Rules were made to quietly disappear.

Now that we're done, it's safe to bring them out again. Starting from scratch, here is a summary of everything we've covered in the first 10 parts of this series. Consider this your pocket guide to the draft, especially if you happen to be on a conference call next Tuesday afternoon. Feel free to print out, laminate, and place in an attractive wood frame with gold trim.

Draft Rule No. 1: The greatest difference in value between consecutive draft picks is the difference between the first and second picks in a draft.

Historically, the No. 1 overall pick has returned at least 40 percent more value than any other draft slot. After the first pick, the typical return on a draft pick falls 4-5 percent per slot until approximately the 40th pick, and then drops by a little over 1 percent per slot until pick No. 100.

Draft Rule No. 2: College players are roughly 50 percent more likely to reach the major leagues than high-school players of equal draft caliber. This advantage has not changed over time.

Among players taken in the first 100 picks between 1984 and 1991 60 percent of college players drafted reached the majors, compared to 41 percent of high school players. Between 1992 and 1999, college players had a roughly equal edge, 57 percent to 39 percent.

Draft Rule No. 3: In a year where there is a clear superstar talent available in the ranks of high school hitters, it is a perfectly acceptable -- if not mandatory -- draft strategy to select that player with the No. 1 overall pick.

High school players selected No. 1 overall since 1984 include Ken Griffey Jr., Chipper Jones, Alex Rodriguez, and more recently, Joe Mauer. The best college player selected No. 1 overall since 1984 is probably Pat Burrell, although you could make a case for B.J. Surhoff or Andy Benes.

Draft Rule No. 4: While college players returned almost exactly double the return on investment that high school players did between 1984 and 1991, that advantage dropped dramatically, to approximately 25 percent, between 1992 and 1999.

Draft Rule No. 5: The increase in value of high-school players relative to their college counterparts occurred even though teams were more likely to use top draft picks on high-school players in the 1990s than in the 1980s.

The era of the mid-to-late 1980s was marked by an unusually large number of elite college players who were highly coveted as high school players but were not signed out of the draft. The massive increase in signing bonuses which occurred in the early 1990s meant that virtually all of the top high school players in any given year signed pro contracts, bolstering the crop of high school signees while simultaneously depleting the college ranks. This appears to be the primary reason why college players no longer enjoy the enormous advantage they once did. The improved quality of competition for elite high school players, who now frequently compete in tournaments against the best players from all over the country, has likely had an impact as well.