UNC and Michigan State loom, but UConn is best team

	Carldell "Squeaky" Johnson quarterbacks UAB's high-energy attack and leads the team in assists, averaging 6.2 a game. Nelson Chenault/US Presswire
	RELATED • MANDEL: Atlanta Region Breakdown • DAVIS: Minneapolis Region Breakdown • MORRILL: Oakland Region Breakdown • MANDEL: Bracket Overview • WINN: The Tourney Blog

By Luke Winn, SI.com

Underrated: UAB
The No. 9-seeded Blazers, with just one win over a team in the top 50 of the RPI (Memphis), don't have the résumé to justify a higher seed, but that's irrelevant; they still scare the bejesus out of everyone in this region. Coach Mike Anderson's helter-skelter, "40 minutes of hell" attack ranks No. 2 nationally in steals (11.1 per game), and a stunning 29.1 percent of UAB's defensive possessions result in turnovers. The Blazers also have plenty of tourney-upset experience: Slotted in the same position in 2004, they upset Washington and No. 1-seeded Kentucky to reach the Sweet 16; as an 11 seed in 2005 they knocked off No. 6 LSU. Kentucky and UConn, beware.

Overrated: Tennessee
Sure, the Vols deserved a No. 2 seed -- if the season had ended in mid-February, when they were 19-3. What was the NCAA selection committee thinking, handing a 2 to a team that lost four of its last six games to finish 21-7? Coach Bruce Pearl has worked miracles to get this squad where it is -- from nowhere to the top of the SEC East -- but Tennessee looks like it may have peaked too soon.

Bracket Buster: Wichita State
Northern Iowa was the early darling of the Missouri Valley Conference, and Southern Illinois won the league tournament, but the ultra-balanced Shockers (with four double-digit scorers) are the MVC's best offering in the Big Dance. Six-foot-10 center Paul Miller can bang with any major-conference post man: He averaged 19.5 points in losses to Illinois and Michigan State and could give undersized Tennessee serious trouble in the second round if WSU gets by Seton Hall.

Home Cooking: Connecticut
UConn gets to stay on the East Coast and play in two familiar Big East venues -- Philly's Wachovia Center (Villanova's part-time home) and D.C.'s MCI Center (Georgetown) -- but will that help or hurt the Huskies? The past two times it made a title run, UConn came out of the West, winning Phoenix regionals in 1999 and 2004. Strangely, the team in this bracket that's located nearest its first-round site is 15th-seeded Winthrop: Rock Hill, S.C., is a 2½-hour drive from Greensboro, N.C.

Best Player You've Never Heard Of: Nate Harris, Utah State
Nevada's Nick Fazekas is the only WAC player with national cred, but Harris, a 6-foot-7 forward who averages 17.2 points and 7.5 rebounds, is a field-goal-percentage machine: The senior shot 62.2 percent from the floor this season, and that was actually down from his sophomore- (67.7) and junior-year (65.2) percentages. The Aggies play a low-possession game, and Harris makes the most of his opportunities.

Best Matchup: Michigan State-North Carolina
The potential Michigan State-North Carolina duel on Sunday in Dayton -- a rematch from the 2005 Final Four -- could be the best second-round game in the entire bracket. The Spartans, despite their defensive inconsistencies, are regarded by many to be a sleeper pick to make it to Indy, and the Heels are one of the hottest teams entering the Dance, having won 11 of their last 13. A Paul Davis vs. Tyler Hansbrough battle in the post could get very interesting.

The Pick: Connecticut
Look for Michigan State to sneak into the final, but its run will end there. UConn -- despite its first-round exit from the Big East tournament -- is going to emerge from Washington, D.C.

"Last week [against Syracuse] we played like a 27-2 team that thought it could just throw its résumé on the court and win," Huskies associate head coach Tom Moore said on Sunday. "Maybe that was the wake-up call that we needed to value the urgency of every possession."

A more focused UConn squad could get a scare from UAB in Round 2 -- the Huskies did split with the only "pressure" team they played this season, Villanova -- and as long as the Huskies survive there, they should stay on course for Indy.