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The Stat Rat (cont.)

Posted: Saturday March 25, 2006 2:11AM; Updated: Saturday March 25, 2006 2:11AM
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By Brad Evans, Special to SI.com, TalentedMrRoto.com

Sewer Rats

Lurking in the underbelly of urban sprawl, here are my top seven sewer rats, who could claw their way into the Top 100 in 2006. Average Draft Position courtesy of MockDraftCentral.com.

Garrett Atkins
Playing in Coors Field is a big boost to Garrett Atkins' value.
Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

Garrett Atkins, 3B, COL
2005 Stats: 519 ABs -.287 BA -13 HR -89 RBI -72 RS -.347OBP
ADP: 175.1
Why invest? A heavy dose of meat and cheese may be counterintuitive to weight loss, but playing 81 games at Coors Field will make any fantasy owner's waistline burst. With many fantasy prospectors waiting for the Ian Stewart show in Denver, Atkins falls in drafts with little reason. Leading all rookies in OBP and RBI production last year, Atkins should continue to improve hitting behind a revitalized Todd Helton this season. However, he will have to boost his road reputation after hitting an awful .239 in 265 away at-bats. 20HR -100RBI upside and an excellent batting average are well within reach for this Colorado corner man.

Dan Johnson, 1B, OAK
2005 Stats: 375 ABs -.275 BA - 15 HR - 58 RBI - 54RS -.355OBP
ADP: 203.4
Why invest? He walks. He Talks. He mashes. Likely the illegitimate son of the former Bash Brothers combo in Oakland (without the 'roids) Johnson has all the intangibles of a lucid California dream loaded with Hawaiian Tropic models. Called up in late May last season, DJ showed fantasy owners his capabilities tallying 15 homers and a sick 50 BB/52 K split in 375 at-bats. With power to all fields and fantastic plate discipline, Johnson could emerge this season as a standard 22 -27HR player, with century-mark RBI totals and a solid batting average. Recently drafted with the 112th selection in the TalentedMrRoto experts mixed draft, his value is skyrocketing. Once the big-time first base sluggers have come off the board, give this former Cornhusker a spot on your team.

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, CIN
2005 Stats: 211 ABs -.232 BA - 9 HR - 31 RBI - 25 RS - 3 SB - .308 OBP
ADP: 217.6
Why invest? Like using SAT scores as a means of predicting college GPAs, strong spring numbers do not necessarily correlate to fantasy success. However, Eddie Encarn could be the exception to the rule. In 48 ABs this spring, the Cincinnati juggernaut has posted a line that would make Ted Williams jealous .458 BA -6 HR -18 RBI -10 RS -22 H -72 Bs. The Red's top-hitting prospect has shown a great deal of patience at the plate walking 53 times in two straight seasons, a great sign of maturity. According to Baseball America, scouts believe that Encarnacion has the offensive makeup to be a perennial 20-25 HR player who can flirt with a .300 batting average. Selected just last week with the 165th pick in the TalentedMrRoto experts mixed-league draft, his stock is already beginning to soar. He could easily finish the season as a top-10 third baseman.

Curtis Granderson, OF, DET
2005 Stats: 162ABs - .272 BA - 8 HR - 20 RBI - 18 RS - 1 SB - .314OBP
ADP: 227.7
Why invest? Smooth like a Smokey Robinson tune, the kid from Motown has the all-around productivity that spells a Billboard hit. Working tirelessly to improve his plate patience this spring, Granderson's infectious work ethic has paid off with a .395 BA - 5 HRs - 5 SBs line and a 9/6 BB/K rate in 38 plate appearances. Similar to Randy Winn or Rocco Baldelli in numbers-speak, Granderson has been named Jim Leyland's Opening Day center fielder. Equipped with gap power and fantastic speed, don't be shocked if Granderson flirts with a 20/20 season if he can remain disciplined in the box. If not, look for speedster Nook Logan to steal away some playing time if he is not traded. Mixed leaguers should consider him a strong fourth outfielder in 12- or 14-team leagues.

Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX
2005 Stats (AAA Oklahoma City): 530 ABs -.274 BA -23 HR -94 RBI -102 RS -19 SB -.348 OBP
ADP: 254.8
Why invest? They say everything is big in Texas, and for super rookie Kinsler, the numbers are sure to live up to the adage. Playing in a very favorable ballpark and possessed with 20/20 potential, Kinsler could be this season's version of Tadahito Iguchi. No formal announcement has been made in regards to Kinsler being the everyday second baseman, but with utility man Mark DeRosa hitting a lightweight .233 this spring, it should be an easy decision for Buck Showalter. The 172nd player taken in the TalentedMrRoto experts mixed draft, Kinsler will be a solid contributor in most categories, but expect a batting average in the .260-.270 range. He is a fine starting middle infielder in any format 12 teams or greater.

Matt Murton, OF, CHC
2005 Stats: 140 ABs - .321 BA - 7 HR - 14 RBI - 19 RS - 2 SB - .386 OBP
ADP: 292.1
Why invest? His bat and fiery locks are hotter than a red-faced Lou Piniella chucking first base after a blown call. Breathing fire this spring, Murton has destroyed opposing pitching hitting a robust .484 in 31 ABs. Despite Dusty Baker's reputation for limiting young player's opportunities, he has made if very apparent that Murton will be the Cubs everyday left fielder. However, if Murton were to slump, don't be shocked if Jerry Hairston, journeyman John Mabry or the ancient Marquis Grissom take away at bats. But no need to worry, this former Georgia Tech star has strike-zone judgment (16BB/22K in 140 big-league ABs in '05), power and speed that can put a turbo-charge into your rotisserie outfield. As long as he can remain consistent, don't be shocked if Murton eclipses the .300 average mark while chipping in home run and SB totals in the mid- to high-teens.

Josh Barfield, 2B, SD
2005 Stats (AAA Portland): 516 ABs - .308 BA - 15 HR - 72 RBI - 74 RS - 19 SB - .368 OBP
ADP: N/A
Why invest? Meet your San Diego Padres Opening Day two-bagger. Son of former standout Blue Jays outfielder Jesse Barfield, the junior Josh has the physical tools that scream success, but thankfully without his father's Jheri curls. Hitting an impressive .458 with 12 RBIs and a spring-leading eight doubles in 34 plate appearances, Barfield could pay an immediate dividend. Only 23, the Pads youngster could be a late-round gem who should post double-digit totals in home runs and stolen bases. However, his 113.5-K season average in the minors and history of struggling against right-handed pitching suggests he will experience several boom and bust cycles. Consider selling high on him early if he jumps off to a hot start.


Brad Evans is a fantasy baseball analyst for TalentedMrRoto.com, a site featuring free advice, news, stats and analysis for all fantasy sports. Contact him at Guru@TalentedMrRoto.com.

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