Is targeting touted rookie pitchers a sound strategy?

	Rookie Casey Janssen is 3-3 with a 3.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP for Toronto. AP

By Christopher Harris, Special to SI.com, TalentedMrRoto.com

Nothing in fantasy baseball sings a sweeter siren's song than young starting pitching, and I am nothing if not vulnerable to that particular tune. Peruse the rosters of my various pitching staffs, and at any given time you'll see innumerable Fausto Caromonas, Boof Bonsers, Sean Marshalls and Cole Hamelses.

To me, rookie hurlers represent the best way to get a boost in the fantasy standings without making a massive investment, or blowing up your team. Think about it: If you spend a lot to pick up Kendry Morales, you may indeed wind up being very happy, but it'll take you a month before you're sure. Morales has been brilliant in his five major-league games: two homers, six RBIs, a .409 average and a 1.162 OPS. But a lot will have to go right for Morales to really impact your bottom line. Casey Kotchman will have to stay down with his kissing disease. Dallas McPherson will have to stay cold. Darin Erstad had better not bump anyone. And Morales himself has to keep hitting. Eventually, with enough at-bats, he'll pump your stats, but not before.

Not so the rookie starter. If you catch lightning in a bottle with a Francisco Liriano or a Felix Hernandez circa 2005, you can get wins right away -- which are far scarcer commodities than homers or RBIs -- as well as strikeouts and better ratios. And major-league teams are apt to stick with a hot pitching hand far longer than they might a batter, because no one has enough starting pitching. That's why you'll see dozens of fantasy articles pumping Hamels, who's never won a major-league game and currently resides on the disabled list; on the off chance he stays healthy and stays in the rotation, he could make your pitching staff tons better.

Plus, so many major-league teams are pitching-hungry that they'll bring up an inordinate number of "prospects" to see if they can catch lightning in a bottle. In other words, you've got a lot of bullets in this particular gun. Of course, as with any strategy, there's a downside. Pick too many first-year starter lemons, and your ratios go haywire. (Et tu, Fausto?)

My question for this week's column is: On aggregate, does this strategy work? If you stick to starting pitching's "current top prospects," snatch them up as they're called to the majors, will you benefit?

There are a few problems with this question. First off, one man's "current top prospect" is another man's "Abe Alvarez." Second, nobody has enough room on their fantasy squad to grab every starting pitching prospect who comes to the majors. And third, when I'm looking backward for the purpose of statistical comparison, it's possible that my memory is faulty, and I'm forgetting exactly which pitchers were once considered great prospects. Nevertheless, I still believe this is a question worth asking, and can guide us in how aggressively or conservatively we pursue young free-agent starters.

The following is a list of prospects who've been called up since the 2006 season began (note that I'm not including pitchers like Josh Johnson or Justin Verlander, because they made their teams out of spring training, and therefore were likely drafted in most deep leagues): Bonser, Carmona, Dana Eveland, Angel Guzman, Hamels, Rich Hill, Casey Janssen, Adam Loewen, Marshall, Alay Soler, Mike Thompson and Jered Weaver.

The aggregate 2006 major-league statistics for these 12 starters are:

Considering that the current averages for major-league starting pitchers (through Sunday) were a 1.41 WHIP and a 4.57 ERA, this "aggregate call-up person" we're describing isn't much fantasy help. "But ah," you say, "anyone who would consider Weaver and Marshall in the same sentence, let alone the same analysis, deserves an eighth-place fantasy finish." Fair enough. What if we stick to Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list? This year, Loewen (No. 45), Weaver (57) and Hamels (68) made the list, and their (much smaller) aggregate so far is:

Ah, much better. So that's all there is to it, right? Stick to Baseball America's Top 100, only pick up starting pitchers who get promoted from that list, and you'll have a major advantage, right?

Well, maybe. The problems here are threefold. First, it's hard to get these guys. You had to pay about half your FAAB budget to get Hamels, and methinks Weaver is going to promote a similar feeding frenzy. Second, there's a chance that thinking so completely "inside the box" will lead you to miss out on good call-up starters, like Janssen, who's currently at 3-3 with a 3.25 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. Third, this sample size is too small. In an effort to remedy this last issue, let's take a look at past years.