Conventional wisdom? Not always that wise

By Neil Tardy, Special to SI.com, TalentedMrRoto.com

While the main reason we play fantasy baseball is to win our leagues and, in the process, vanquish our friends, some of fantasy's sweetest victories are those that come not against an opposing team, but at the expense of conventional wisdom.

For instance, conventional wisdom had Alfonso Soriano stamped as the fantasy flop of 2006. And in light of the offseason trade from the Rangers and Soriano's preseason tirades in the Nationals' camp, it seemed like a pretty solid call. But if you were savvy enough to grab Soriano at a bargain draft position or auction price, you've got to be feeling pretty good right now, no matter where you are in your league standings. You stared down the prevailing logic the way a rehabbing Roger Clemens glares at a fuzz-faced minor leaguer twitching in the batter's box. You defied conventional wisdom. Already, you've won.

Personally, I'm greatly enjoying Kenny Rogers' showing thus far. Here's what three popular fantasy magazines said about Rogers in their 2006 previews:

• "The Tigers overpaid for him, but you shouldn't ..."

• "More hits will arrive with his terrible strikeout rate, and many will be doubles and triples in the roomy Detroit outfield."

• "It's hard to see him posting another 3.46 ERA while flipping the ball up and hoping it's hit at someone."

However, I liked Rogers mainly because I figured he was crafty enough to use spacious Comerica Park to his advantage. Sure enough, he's been nearly untouchable at home (3-1, 1.91) and, with Detroit's improved team chipping in, adequate on the road (5-2, 4.47). Overall I've been rewarded with eight wins and an ERA that currently matches that supposedly unmatchable 3.46 of 2005. Yes, I realize that Rogers has faded badly after the All-Star break the past two seasons, but I continue to savor the sweet satisfaction of being right.

That said, I'm not knocking conventional wisdom in fantasy baseball (for one thing, I produce a tiny, tiny shred of it myself). The time you spend reading information -- both fantasy-oriented tips and MLB news -- in print and on websites will greatly help you as a fantasy owner. Conventional wisdom still prevails more often than not, as I've learned when I defied the experts on Felix Hernandez this year. I didn't see any reason why King Felix wouldn't, in his first full season, be the reincarnate of Doc Gooden, circa 1985. Now I'm seeing it.

The point is, part of the fun of fantasy is making your own calls, right or wrong. So take conventional wisdom seriously -- just don't take it as gospel.