Abreu ... Wright ... Is there a Home Run Derby curse?

By Neil Tardy, Special to SI.com., TalentedMrRoto.com

OK, it's a month after the fact, but I think I have this Home Run Derby thing figured out. For the true power hitters -- guys like Ryan Howard, this year's derby champ, and David Ortiz, whose participation in the last two derbies has hardly stopped him from being the game's most feared clutch hitter -- home-run hitting exhibitions are no problem, perhaps because they're not swinging any differently than normal. But then there are the true hitters, guys who can hit home runs, but don't go into each at-bat with the long ball in mind. Someone like Bobby Abreu, whose power shortage since winning last year's derby is well chronicled, or David Wright, who has but two homers in 24 games since participating in this year's derby. Maybe it's these kind of guys who get to the derby, suddenly find themselves constantly thinking about the fences, and get their swings messed up.

So is there a Home Run Derby curse? Just ask any hysterically over-analytical fantasy owner who decided to deal Howard, thinking he'd tank after this year's derby. The Phillies first baseman has gone deep 11 times since winning the 2006 derby last month in Pittsburgh. More on Howard in a bit, but first, The Stat Rat brings us the crunchy goodness of raw numbers. This week: The top 50 pitchers and hitters for AL-only roto leagues, as of Aug. 10.

Stat Rat Top 50: 5X5 AL-Only

Justin Morneau is No. 8 on the hitters list, but he's been as good as anyone the past two months. In 36 games since July 1, the Twins slugger is hitting .380 with as many home runs as strikeouts (10). Put it this way: If in late June you'd offered Jim Thome (.321, 9 HR since July 1) straight-up for the 25-year-old Canadian, you'd have come out ahead.

Rank Player, Pos, Team R HR RBI SB BA Total 1 David Ortiz, 1B, BOS 1.17 1.99 1.45 -0.18 0.18 0.92 2 Travis Hafner, 1B, CLE 1.17 1.59 1.22 -0.23 0.28 0.81 3 Jim Thome, 1B, CHW 1.28 1.65 1.03 -0.23 0.25 0.79 4 Jermaine Dye, OF, CWS 0.85 1.40 1.08 0.04 0.54 0.78 5 Vernon Wells, OF, TOR 0.73 1.16 0.95 0.34 0.59 0.76 6 Manny Ramirez, OF, BOS 0.85 1.46 1.11 -0.23 0.55 0.75 7 Carlos Lee, OF, TEX 0.87 1.22 0.95 0.42 0.26 0.74 8 Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN 0.73 1.34 1.30 -0.18 0.52 0.74 9 Derek Jeter, SS, NYY 1.05 0.05 0.67 1.08 0.85 0.74 10 Vladimir Guerrero, OF, ANG 0.75 1.00 1.02 0.33 0.51 0.72 11 Carl Crawford, OF, TBY 0.74 0.42 0.47 1.54 0.39 0.71 12 Jason Giambi, 1B, NYY 0.94 1.61 1.14 -0.12 -0.18 0.68 13 Troy Glaus, 3B, TOR 1.10 1.41 0.99 -0.07 -0.09 0.67 14 Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY 1.02 0.91 0.91 0.34 0.10 0.66 15 Miguel Tejada, SS, BAL 0.97 0.69 0.84 0.07 0.68 0.65 16 Paul Konerko, 1B, CHW 0.86 1.17 0.94 -0.17 0.33 0.63 17 Grady Sizemore, OF, CLE 1.28 0.52 0.29 0.64 0.35 0.61 18 Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA 1.01 -0.15 0.00 1.49 0.72 0.61 19 Johnny Damon, OF, NYY 1.09 0.44 0.38 0.83 0.20 0.59 20 Bobby Abreu, OF, NYY 0.79 0.05 0.71 1.08 0.18 0.56 21 Joe Crede, 3B, CHW 0.66 1.05 0.86 -0.23 0.32 0.53 22 Carlos Guillen, SS, DET 0.74 0.29 0.61 0.60 0.37 0.52 23 Raul Ibanez, 1B/OF, SEA 0.80 0.89 1.05 -0.12 -0.01 0.52 24 Joe Mauer, C, MIN 0.68 0.13 0.62 0.15 0.98 0.51 25 Alex Rios, OF, TOR 0.52 0.55 0.64 0.42 0.40 0.51 Rank Player, Pos, Team R HR RBI SB BA Total 1 Johan Santana, SP, MIN 1.89 1.36 -0.12 0.67 1.25 1.01 2 Curt Schilling, SP, BOS 1.48 1.50 -0.12 0.35 1.21 0.89 3 Mike Mussina, SP, NYY 1.39 1.36 -0.12 0.51 1.14 0.86 4 Roy Halladay, SP, TOR 0.81 1.53 -0.12 0.68 1.28 0.84 5 Jeremy Bonderman, SP, DET 1.56 1.11 -0.12 0.40 1.14 0.82 6 Justin Verlander, SP, DET 0.81 1.64 -0.12 0.74 0.97 0.81 7 Francisco Liriano, SP/RP, MIN 1.31 1.18 -0.01 0.82 0.67 0.79 8 John Lackey, SP, ANG 1.33 0.97 -0.12 0.60 1.16 0.79 9 Scott Kazmir, SP, TBY 1.53 1.04 -0.12 0.49 0.88 0.76 10 Barry Zito, SP, OAK 0.95 1.22 -0.12 0.41 1.14 0.72 11 Dan Haren, SP, OAK 1.15 0.82 -0.12 0.44 1.19 0.70 12 Erik Bedard, SP, BAL 1.10 1.25 -0.12 0.30 0.96 0.70 13 Vicente Padilla, SP, TEX 1.05 1.25 -0.12 0.21 1.00 0.68 14 Josh Beckett, SP, BOS 1.11 1.39 -0.12 -0.12 1.01 0.65 15 Ervin Santana, SP, ANG 0.90 1.25 -0.12 0.21 1.02 0.65 16 Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA 1.22 1.01 -0.12 0.14 0.94 0.64 17 Jose Contreras, SP, CHW 0.82 1.04 -0.12 0.38 1.07 0.64 18 C.C. Sabathia, SP, CLE 1.16 0.79 -0.12 0.45 0.88 0.63 19 Randy Johnson, SP, NYY 1.16 1.22 -0.12 -0.17 1.03 0.62 20 Nate Robertson, SP/RP, DET 0.83 0.99 -0.12 0.35 1.05 0.62 21 Ted Lilly, SP, TOR 1.06 0.99 -0.12 0.24 0.86 0.61 22 Chien-Ming Wang, SP, NYY 0.08 1.36 -0.01 0.43 1.14 0.60 23 Javier Vazquez, SP, CHW 1.14 1.13 -0.12 -0.20 0.94 0.58 24 Kelvim Escobar, SP, ANG 0.94 0.74 -0.12 0.36 0.92 0.57 25 Gil Meche, SP, SEA 1.06 0.85 -0.12 0.12 0.91 0.56 The Stat Rat rankings are explained here.