The naysayers claim that LJ won't be as productive now that left tackle Willie Roaf has retired. But last year Johnson's first three starts came with an injured Roaf out of the lineup. Johnson's per-game rushing average without Roaf? 150. His average with Roaf? 151.

As for Alexander and Tomlinson, the former will be without Steve Hutchinson; the difference between LJ's situation and Alexander's is that LJ has a track record of performing without his stud lineman and Alexander doesn't. And the latter struggled with injuries at the end of last year, averaging 3.7 yards on the ground over the final four weeks.

My work here is done. I'm off to fill two openings in my fantasy league.     -- Gene Menez

THE SURE THING
LaDainian Tomlinson
RB San Diego Chargers

I live by one simple rule when drafting a fantasy football team: Assume that whatever occurred last year -- especially the absurd -- will not repeat itself. (Thank you, Rich Gannon, Curtis Martin, et al. for the hard lesson.) Thus, I'm reluctant to believe that Alexander can repeat his 27 touchdowns, especially in light of the lane-paving Steve Hutchinson's absence. And I have equal skepticism about Johnson's replicating the greatest eight-game stretch known to mankind, especially with an offensive line bookended by newcomers. I therefore expect Tomlinson, hampered by a rib injury and held to a (for him) disappointing 1,832 all-purpose yards in 2005, to bounce back as the top fantasy performer in '06.

Granted, Alexander has clearly hit his stride, but I like a back who'll give you catches as well as carries, and Alexander's yearly average of 31.3 receptions leaves much to be desired. In comparison, Tomlinson suffered a career low in 2005 when he caught 51 balls. (His average is 68.4.) And my doubts about Johnson can be summed up in two words: Priest Holmes. Will the All-Pro in sheep's clothing, who was sidelined in '05, be a factor in '06? Probably not. But first picks are reserved for sure things. Tomlinson, a top four fantasy back every year since '02, remains the closest to that ideal.

Such a home run is Tomlinson that his lone downside remains an iffy quarterback situation. Among drafters the consensus seems to be this: As goes Philip Rivers, so go LT's numbers. But a closer look at the Tomlinson-Drew Brees era reveals that running backs in Marty Schottenheimer's system have prospered (with tons of short dump-offs) when the long passing game has faltered. Tomlinson is a load bearer who will happily carry the brunt of the offense while a new quarterback develops. Case in point: Brees's worst season (a 67.5 passer rating in 2003) was Tomlinson's best (100 receptions and 2,370 all-purpose yards). Few have much faith in Rivers -- which is why I have all the faith in the world in Tomlinson.     -- Adam Duerson

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