Beware of taking these players too early in your draft

	Drew Bledsoe may have Terrell Owens to throw to this year, but he's also fighting off Tony Romo for the starting job. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
	Most Overvalued Players Rank Name Team Pos ADP 1 Ron Dayne Den RB 101 2 Koren Robinson Min WR 106 3 Mike Williams Det WR 203 4 Charles Rogers Det WR 227 5 Antwaan Randel El Was WR 178 6 Braylon Edwards Cle WR 118 7 Jon Kitna Det QB 151 8 Drew Bledsoe Dal QB 67 9 Jake Delhomme Car QB 59 10 Mike Vanderjagt Dal K 145 11 Eli Manning NYG QB 43 12 Drew Brees NO QB 94 13 Chester Taylor Min RB 35 14 Julius Jones Dal RB 26 15 Carnell Williams TB RB 12 ADP: Average Draft Position, according to MyFantasyLeague.com

By Richard Harris, Special to SI.com, FFExperts.com

Fantasy football owners spend a great deal of time looking for sleepers -- hidden gems that you can get in late in the draft. It is very satisfying if these sleepers turn out to be very productive -- it's like finding a nearly-new plasma TV for $300 at a yard sale.

It's just as important to avoid the opposite scenario -- selecting players that will fail to live up to their draft slot. Drafting too many busts, especially in the early rounds, can be not only embarrassing but also devastating to your playoff hopes.

I looked at the top 50 players taken in 2005, which was based on the data from more than 2,600 drafts at MyFantasyLeague.com. By my estimation, 32 of those 50 players failed to live up to their draft slot. The 32 ranged from Peyton Manning at No. 3 overall to Fred Taylor at No. 50.

Injuries affected 23 of the 32 disappointing players to varying degrees. Some were doing fine before being hurt (Priest Holmes and Randy Moss). Some never had a chance (Javon Walker). And some weren't effective but continued to play (Curtis Martin).

It's difficult to predict injuries, and you already know to downgrade those who are frequent visitors to the training room (or operating room). However, there were the 11 disappointing players who couldn't use injuries as an excuse (Manning, Willis McGahee and Terrell Owens), and there were several others who were struggling even before they were injured (Daunte Culpepper and Ahman Green).

I did not see a clear-cut common denominator among this "healthy" group, although you could say that most were victims of unreasonable expectations. For example, it was unreasonable to think that Manning would throw for 40-plus TDs in consecutive seasons. It was also unreasonable to think that McGahee would have a banner year while playing with a first-year starter at QB and facing one of the league's toughest schedules. And we should have expected Culpepper to be a little lost without Moss.

So, who is being overvalued this year? For starters, nearly all of the big-name rookies are, even in non-keeper leagues. People just love "the new kid in town."

Excluding rookies, my list of the most overvalued players is headlined by four players who are being drafted but shouldn't be drafted. The rest of the players on the list are simply being drafted earlier than they should. In my estimation, drafters are overestimating how much new surroundings or new teammates will help these players (e.g., Jon Kitna). In fact, some of these players are good candidates to be hurt by their new surroundings (e.g., Mike Vanderjagt). In other cases, the possibility of losing playing time to backups (e.g., Julius Jones) or missing games due to injury is being overlooked (e.g., Braylon Edwards). Also, the impact of strength of schedule is being underestimated (e.g., Eli Manning). For some, multiple factors apply, as is the case for Drew Bledsoe, who not only has to worry about emerging backup Tony Romo and a porous offensive line but also must deal with a difficult schedule.