By Bob Harris, Special to SI.com, FootballDiehards

Tony Gonzalez, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
While claiming satisfaction at becoming a complete tight end in his ninth season -- Gonzalez was an effective blocker last year -- that's not how he wants to be known. After catching an NFL record (for tight ends) 102 passes in '04, Gonzalez fell off to 78 receptions and only two touchdowns last season. And though he made the Pro Bowl for a seventh straight year, Gonzalez was not happy working in pass protection when Willie Roaf was injured; at least twice last season, he expressed disappointment in his role.

Now, heading into 2006, you have to wonder just how happy he'll be with the conservative Herman Edwards riding herd over new coordinator Mike Solari -- previously the team's line coach. Making matters worse: Roaf has retired. If Gonzalez thought he spent too much time working as a blocker last season what will he think this year?

Based on current ADP data, Gonzalez is still the fourth tight end off the board, making him a late fifth-round pick in the average 12-team league. That seems awfully high for a guy who could struggle to duplicate last year's totals.

Alternate suggestion: After missing all but one game of his 2004 rookie season with a knee injury, New England's Ben Watson was a breakout star in 2005, finishing fourth on the team in catches (29) and yards (441) and second in touchdowns (four). The Pats were thrilled with how the big tight end put his physical skills to use on the football field last season. Watson wowed scouts with his receiver-like speed coming out of Georgia and that speed was proven beyond a doubt when he chased down Denver cornerback Champ Bailey in January's divisional playoff loss to the Broncos. This year, with Deion Branch holding out, David Givens no longer on the roster and a less-than-stellar cast of wideouts hoping to fill the void, Tom Brady is all but certain to rely on Watson as a primary weapon.

Value? Oh yes. Watson is ranked 10th among all tight ends and is going late in the ninth round on the average.

Darrell Jackson, WR Seattle Seahawks
After overcoming the drops that plagued him in 2004, Jackson lost ground in his battle to avoid injury last season as he missed nine games following arthroscopic surgery on his right knee -- a procedure followed up by further off-season surgery to remove flaking from the same joint. Of course, when he did play last year, Jackson contributed in a big way. In his six regular season games he recorded 38 catches for 482 yards and three touchdowns. Put that in perspective and he would have produced a 101-catch, 1,285-yard season.

The bad news? Jackson still hasn't returned from the above mentioned off-season surgery -- a minor procedure performed in April. And while he's still targeting the Sept. 10 regular-season opener for his return, he's failed to meet a number of previously announced return dates because of the knee.

As the Tacoma News Tribune suggested last week, Jackson has performed well after missing extensive practice time in the past, but this marks the longest layoff of his career. Despite the downside, Jackson continues to draw heavy interest on draft day. Current ADP data has him going off the board in the middle of the fourth round (14th among all receivers).

Alternate suggestions: The list of players currently ranking below Jackson features any number of outstanding prospects, including Santana Moss, Donald Driver, Derrick Mason, Joe Horn, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Joey Galloway, Lee Evans, Rod Smith, Javon Walker, Andre Johnson, Matt Jones and others.

Consider this: Many observers believe Tampa Bay's Michael Clayton, coming off an injury-marred sophomore season, is ready to regain the form he demonstrated as a rookie while hauling in 80 catches for 1,193 yards and seven touchdowns. Jackson's best season ever as a pro also came in 2004, when he pulled in 87 catches for 1,199 yards and seven touchdowns.

The biggest difference? Clayton can be picked up in late in the seventh round this year while Jackson -- injury issues and all -- will be long gone by then.

Again, these are just a few examples meant to illustrate the kind of situations and differentials you'll want to watch for come draft day. I suggest taking a few moments to study the latest average draft data before drawing up your own list of over-valued prospects. Use it to augment your regular draft list and always remember:

Fantasy success isn't about who you pick; it's when you pick them.

Bob Harris is co-founder of the FootballDiehards Web site and senior editor at FSP Inc., publisher of Fantasy Football Pro Forecast, DraftBook, CheatSheets and Football Diehards magazines. He is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.

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