Well-known players aren't always the safest bets

	With T.J. Duckett gone to the Redskins, look for Warrick Dunn to get more carries in short-yardage situations. Doug Benc/Getty Images

By Bob Harris, Special to SI.com, FootballDiehards

As we slog through the final week before the season and plot our final draft strategies, I'd like to toss out a quick reminder: Draft-day value will be a factor in your fantasy success.

I'll also remind you that uncertainty undermines value.

So let me offer a few examples of players who -- whether due to current (perhaps even temporary) issues, historical tendencies or a combination of the two -- I believe are coming up short in the value department.

I'll explain why and offer less-risky prospects that might provide more stability and more important, superior draft-day value based on the latest AntSports.com average draft data.

Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Westbrook wants the ball this season and he wants it a lot. He wants coach Andy Reid to ignore his touch count and let him prove that he can hold up to a regular, 20-carry-a-game load. Unfortunately, Westbrook has just two 20-carry games so far in his career and just six games with 22 or more touches. And despite averaging an impressive 4.5 yards per carry and 9.7 yards per catch in four NFL seasons, he's never has touched the ball more than 252 times in any of them.

Nor has he made it through a full season without missing time due to injury. But Reid plans to oblige Westbrook's desire for a heavier workload this season. "He's the lead dog," Reid recently said. "He's going to get the ball."

Sounds good, but Reid and Westbrook both have to deliver for fantasy owners to come out ahead. That Westbrook has missed the entire preseason after spraining a foot in last month's preseason opener adds to my concern. Still, Westbrook is the 12th running back selected based on Antsports.com mock draft data.

Alternate suggestion: As The Atlanta Journal-Constitution suggested early this week, Warrick Dunn's reliability, productivity and businesslike approach make him easy to overlook. But the Falcons' veteran halfback will once again be relied upon to supply the majority of the team's rushing attack -- the best in the NFL the last two seasons Indeed, with T.J. Duckett now plying his trade in Washington -- and with rookie backup Jerious Norwood lacking in experience -- the Falcons will rely on the Dunn more than ever before. Coach Jim Mora believes Dunn is more than capable of converting some of the short-yardage runs now that Duckett is gone. "Warrick Dunn is a good short-yardage back," Mora argues. "You wouldn't think about that by just looking at him. One of Warrick's strengths is hitting a hole quick and hitting a crease. I feel comfortable running him on short yardage."

I'm with the coach on this one. Better still, Dunn is going almost two rounds later (3.11) than Westbrook (2.02).