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How stupid am I? (cont.)

Posted: Friday September 29, 2006 3:21PM; Updated: Friday September 29, 2006 3:27PM
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By Bob Harris, Special to SI.com, FootballDiehards

And while Dunn has run for more yards than Westbrook (310 to 256), the Falcons' diminutive workhorse comes up short in touchdowns (he has none; Westbrook has 5), receptions (Westbrook leads 12 to 3) and receiving yards (Westbrook leads 164 to 12).

How stupid am I? The jury is still out. Remember, it's Week 4. Westbrook is once again listed as questionable and missing practice time with that balky knee. Do you really think the weekly poundings Westbrook needs to take to do his job will actually be conducive to healing?

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Q: Looking at your pre-season rankings, I see you had Larry Johnson No. 1, Shaun Alexander No. 2 and LaDainian Tomlinson No. 3. I had the first pick overall this year. Did you purposely try to sabotage my draft? Or are you just stupid?

A: Well. ... A quick review of the preseason rankings created by all the world's Fantasy professionals (please note I'm smart enough to avoid use of terms like "expert" and "guru") would show most everybody had the same top-three -- in some order.

That Tomlinson is the only one even close to living up to the consensus projections at this point in the season isn't the end of the world. While I'm admittedly disappointed in Johnson's slower-than-expected start, I'm by no means ready to give up on him. You shouldn't either.

Alexander is more problematic. He hasn't missed any of his 99 NFL regular-season games since Seattle drafted him 19th overall in 2000. In fact, Alexander has started 69 of the last 70 games.

His only absence in that span was a '03 start he missed to help with the birth of his first daughter. He entered that game in the second quarter. ... Now, thanks to a cracked bone in his foot, that changes this week. Alexander's 99-game streak will come to end Sunday night in Chicago.

He could miss up to four weeks. Heck, he could miss more. Worse yet, he averaged a meager 62.3 yards per game up to this point.

How stupid am I? You know, I'm going in a different direction here: It's not stupidity; it's a curse.

Last summer, I ranked Tomlinson No. 1 among all Fantasy running backs. This after I got a chance to spend a couple of hours last May interviewing him for a feature article in the 2005 Fantasy Football Pro Forecast.

And while he was a top-five producer when all was said and done, a painful rib injury slowed Tomlinson tremendously down the all-crucial stretch run into the Fantasy playoffs last season. He failed to break the 100-yard mark in any of San Diego's five games in December. Worse yet, he only scored one touchdown during that span -- in Week 17, when most Fantasy championships had already been decided.

So maybe the real question here should be: How cursed am I?

You be the judge. In addition to Tomlinson, the list of players I interviewed last year included Priest Holmes and Deuce McAllister, both of whom finished '05 on injured reserve -- Holmes with an injured neck and McAllister a torn ACL.

So, I know what you're wondering: Whom did I interview this year? That's right; Alexander and Johnson. And Carnell "Cadillac" Williams. And Steve Smith. Really. ... Chunky Soup and Madden have nothing on me.

Q: I notice you ranked Oakland's Aaron Brooks among your top-10 QBs this summer. You also ranked Randy Moss in the top-10 (top-5 even) at wideout. Might I suggest you have the intellectual agility of a small soap dish?

A: I knew these rankings were risky when I made them. But, that was the goal. Every year, I try to find players worth gambling on. I felt Brooks had the ability and supporting cast to deliver.

The bottom line went like this: In Brooks Oakland saw a player who had averaged 25 touchdown passes a year -- and a player who could excel at throwing the deep ball, if he limited his mistakes. I was betting with them and hoping Moss and Jerry Porter helped him reach my lofty expectations.

How stupid am I? By golly, almost as stupid as the Raiders.

There you have it. Those wondering now have a much better idea of just how stupid I can be. It's safe to assume I'll use next week's column to prove I get at least as many right as wrong, that there are limits to my idiocy and that every now and again my predictions actually come to pass.

Bob Harris is co-founder of the FootballDiehards (http://www.footballdiehards.com) Web site and senior editor at FSP Inc., publisher of Fantasy Football Pro Forecast, DraftBook, CheatSheets and Football Diehards magazines. He is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.

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