Bowl Breakdown: Outback Penn State (8-4) vs. No. 17 Tennessee (9-3) Jan. 1, 11 a.m. (ESPN) Raymond James Stadium (65,657) Tampa

SI.com's Mark Beech analyzes the matchup.

Breaking down Penn State

Tennessee QB Erik Ainge flourished in '06, thanks in large part to the return of offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe. AP

Boy, did the Nittany Lions miss Michael Robinson. In 2005, the strong-armed quarterback directed an offense that averaged more than 30 points and 400 yards a game. Without him, the offense foundered, averaging about 350 yards and 23 points per game this fall. Junior QB Anthony Morelli showed some ability, but more often than not was ineffective, throwing for just 10 touchdowns with eight interceptions. He was unable to complement running back Tony Hunt, who was Penn State's only offensive star, rushing for 1,228 yards and 11 touchdowns. Perhaps because of Morelli's struggles, sophomore wideout Derrick Williams seemed to regress. The 6-foot, 201-pound speedster was extremely effective as a freshman but not this year, dropping way too many passes and rarely flashing the breakaway ability that made him such a threat in '05 (he averaged only 11.2 yards per catch and 74.4 all-purpose yards per game).

As usual, the heartbeat of this team was its defense -- the unit ranked no worse than 16th in the nation in any major statistical category. Last year, the Nittany Lions' D dominated with its front seven. But graduation hit the defensive line hard last spring, so in 2006 Penn State shut teams down with its linebackers. Both of PSU's outside LBs -- junior Dan Connor and sophomore Sean Lee -- proved to be dynamic playmakers. Paul Posluszny anchored the defense inside. He was an All-America last year playing outside, but moved inside this season and he may have been better than ever, leading the Nittany Lions in tackles for the third straight year and winning his second Bednarik Award as the country's most outstanding defensive player. Posluszny didn't receive nearly the hype he did in 2005, but that's mostly attributable to Penn State's record dipping from 11-1 to 8-4.

Breaking down Tennessee

While Penn State came back to earth this season, the 17th-ranked Volunteers reclaimed their place among the nation's elite. Offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe returned to Knoxville and was crucial to the turnaround. In his first term, from 1993 to '99, he molded the Tennessee offense into one of college football's most potent. The Volunteers went 63-11 over that span, led the SEC in total offense twice and won the national championship in '98. Along the way, Cutcliffe groomed Peyton Manning into a superstar. Without him, the offense sputtered. In 2005, with offensive coordinator Randy Sanders calling the plays, Tennessee ranked 90th in Division I-A in total offense and 101st in scoring offense. Not surprisingly, the Vols finished 5-6. This year's 9-3 team featured the SEC's second-best passing attack and averaged 29.3 points per game.

Quarterback Erik Ainge and wide receiver Robert Meacham have been the biggest beneficiaries of Cutcliffe's return. Ainge had played impressively as a freshman in 2004 and then badly as a sophomore, when he alternated with Rick Clausen. This year, he was better than ever, throwing 19 touchdowns with only eight interceptions and ranking 11th in the country in pass efficiency. The only thing that held him back was a bad ankle, which forced him to miss the better part of two games in November. As for Meacham, he was about as dominant as a receiver could be in 2006. He surpassed 100 receiving yards in six games and averaged 105.42 receiving yards per game, the third-highest mark in Division I-A.

Final Analysis

With Tennessee's dynamic offense and Penn State's dominant defense, this should be a good one. Though the Volunteers lack a running game (they ranked 94th in the country this year), I like their chances to score more than the Nittany Lions. Tennessee's defense should be stout enough to see this game through.

The Pick: Tennessee 21, Penn State 17