Bowl Breakdown: International Cincinnati (7-5) vs. Western Michigan (8-4) Jan. 6, Noon (ESPN2) Rogers Centre (53,506) Toronto

SI.com's Bill Trocchi analyzes the matchup.

Breaking down Cincinnati

There were plenty of sack celebrations this season for Western Michigan LB Ameer Ismail. Scott A. Miller/US PRESSWIRE

New coach Brian Kelly, hired from Central Michigan after Mark Dantonio left for Michigan State, will coach the bowl game with a skeleton staff of four assistants. Kelly wants to show a glimpse of his new, passing offense, but he must first settle on a quarterback. Sophomore Dustin Grutza and senior Nick Davila have both seen significant action, with Davila quarterbacking Cincinnati's signature win over Rutgers. Neither is an elite quarterback, and Grutza has been hampered with injuries late in the season. Brent Celek is as good a tight end as you'll find, and receiver Derrick Stewart was fourth in the Big East in receiving with 666 yards.

Defensively, the Bearcats are stout, finishing 34th in the nation in scoring defense. Defensive tackle Terrill Byrd, linebacker Kevin McCullough and safety Dominic Ross were all named first team All-Big East. Losing popular defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi, who has taken a job under Dantonio at Michigan State, for the bowl game won't help.

Breaking down Western Michigan

Like Cincinnati, Western Michigan is a run-first offense, with Mark Bonds getting a majority of the work. Bonds ran for 1,082 yards and seven touchdowns to pace an attack that finished sixth in the MAC. Quarterback Ryan Cubit, son of head coach Bill Cubit, put up modest numbers with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Defense is what earned Western Michigan its first bowl trip since the 1988 California Bowl. Linebacker Ameer Ismail is the guy to watch. The MAC Defensive Player of the Year led the nation with 17 sacks, including six against Ball State. Cornerback Londen Fryar is active in the secondary and made five interceptions for a unit that ranked 11th nationally in total defense. The Broncos logged 42 sacks and forced 31 turnovers for the season.

Final analysis

It will be interesting to see how much Kelly tries to implement his pass-first offensive philosophy into a team that ran the ball 61 percent of the time. Western Michigan's big-play defense is not one you really want to face with unfamiliar personnel. Kelly did beat Western Michigan 31-7 this season while at Central Michigan, but this time, he will be coaching an unfamiliar set of players in an unusual environment at the Rogers Centre.

The pick: Western Michigan 17, Cincinnati 13