Bowl Breakdown: Texas No. 16 Rutgers (10-2) vs. Kansas State (7-5) Dec. 28, 8 p.m. ET (NFL) Reliant Stadium (69,500) Houston

SI.com's Stewart Mandel analyzes the matchup.

Breaking down Rutgers

Rutgers sophomore RB Ray Rice eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the second consecutive season. Jimmy DeFlippo/US PRESSWIRE

Greg Schiano's remarkable turnaround at Rutgers reached its latest milestone with the school's first 10-win season since 1976. Sophomore tailback Ray Rice (1,624 yards, 19 touchdowns) emerged as one of the nation's brightest stars, notching three 200-yard games. Senior fullback Brian Leonard and tight end Clark Harris are among the most talented players in the country, but sophomore QB Mike Teel (13 interceptions) makes too many mistakes.

The biggest surprise about the Scarlet Knights this season was their athletic defense, which ranked seventh nationally in passing and total D. Defensive tackles Eric Foster and Ramel Meekins suffocated star Louisville QB Brian Brohm in a 28-25 win on Nov. 9. Kicker Jeremy Ito, who hit the game-winner against Louisville, is an extremely reliable (19-of-24 field goals) weapon.

Breaking down Kansas State

First-year head coach Ron Prince went with a youth movement on offense, starting freshmen at quarterback (Josh Freeman) and tailback (Leon Patton), and it paid off when the 'Cats upset Texas 45-42 on Nov. 11. Freeman took off toward the end of the season, giving K-State big-play capability with receivers Yamon Figurs and Jordy Nelson.

The Wildcats struggled at times on defense. Sophomore defensive end Ian Campbell established himself as one of the nation's top pass-rushers (11.5 sacks), and senior linebacker Brandon Archer is a productive leader (97 tackles), but opponents had little problem running the ball.

Final analysis

On paper, this is a bad matchup for Kansas State, as Freeman doesn't figure to go off against Rutgers' tough pass defense while Rice should be able to pick up yards on the ground. The experience the 'Cats have gained over the season, though, should result in a better performance.

The pick: Rutgers 30, Kansas State 23