Bowl Breakdown: Emerald Bowl Florida State (6-6) vs. UCLA (7-5) Dec. 27, 8 p.m. (ESPN) AT&T Park (38,437) San Francisco

SI.com's Luke Winn analyzes the matchup.

Breaking down Florida State

Sophomore quarterback Drew Weatherford will start the Emerald Bowl for Florida State despite struggling down the stretch. Bob Rosato/SI

The last time a Seminoles team finished at or below .500 was 1976 -- legendary coach Bobby Bowden's first year in Tallahassee. The 2006 squad opened with a gritty win over rival Miami and had a favorable schedule to make a run at a BCS bowl ... except it turned out that the 'Canes (who likewise finished 6-6) weren't a decent measuring stick and the 'Noles were in for a rough next 11 games. Bowden has chosen sophomore quarterback Drew Weatherford (1,829 yards, 11 TDs, 10 interceptions) to start against the Bruins after both Weatherford and backup Xavier Lee (885 yards, 7 TDs, 5 interceptions) struggled late in the season. The root of FSU's offensive ills is an O-line and a running game (with backs Lorenzo Booker and Antone Smith) that's averaged just 95.8 yards per game (103rd in the nation), and stagnant play-calling from coordinator Jeff Bowden, who is resigning after the Emerald Bowl.

A strong defense has kept FSU respectable. The 'Noles rank 15th in the nation in yards allowed (278.9) and are eighth against the run (84.1 yards per game). Much of the credit goes to the stellar linebacker duo of Buster Davis (102 tackles, 5 sacks) and Lawrence Timmons (74 tackles, including 18 for loss and 5 sacks), who are both elite NFL prospects. Junior safety Roger Williams led FSU with four interceptions, while highly touted freshman safety Myron Rolle had a solid season, making 68 tackles, including 5.5 for loss.

Breaking down UCLA

The Bruins enter the Emerald Bowl on a massive wave of momentum after winning their final three regular-season games -- including a seismic 13-9 upset of USC that altered the entire BCS picture. UCLA is carried by a run defense that's nearly as stout as Florida State's, ranking No. 12 in the nation after giving up 89.9 yards per game. Linebacker Christian Taylor (75 tackles, 11.5 for loss) is the Bruins' strength up the middle, but their real forces are on the outside, where defensive ends Bruce Davis (17 tackles for loss, 12.5 sacks) and Justin Hickman (18.5 tackles for loss, 12.5 sacks) are constantly breaking into opposing backfields.

UCLA is gaining confidence in quarterback Patrick Cowan. After throwing seven interceptions and just five touchdowns in his first five starts, Cowan played turnover-free football against Arizona State and USC. The Bruins' top offensive weapon is running back Chris Markey, who ranked fourth in the Pac-10 in rushing (963 yards) but rarely found the end zone, scoring just two touchdowns.

Final Analysis

For a team that went 7-5, there's a lot of excitement surrounding Dorrell's squad -- because of the win over the Trojans and the fact that, as long as no one turns pro early, they'll have 19 of 22 starters returning next season. Florida State, meanwhile, can't be thrilled with the way it ended its season, losing three of its final four ACC games, and then hanging with No. 2 Florida into the fourth quarter before falling 21-14. Strange things can happen in bowl games, but it's tough to imagine the 'Noles ending this tumultuous season on a high note.

The Pick: UCLA 17, Florida State 13