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British Open predictions
Will Tiger defend his title? Or will it be a local lad?
Posted: Wednesday July 19, 2006 11:26AM; Updated: Thursday July 20, 2006 12:24PM
RICK
ARNETTBOB
CASPERJIM
GORANTALAN
SHIPNUCKGARY
VAN SICKLEThe winner of the 2006 British Open will be ... David
Howell
Tiger
Woods
Padraig
Harrington
Tiger
WoodsVijay
Singh
Why? His overall game is rock solid, and he's familiar with the mysterious Royal Liverpool layout. The Euros' leading money winner is quietly moving up the World Ranking (10th) and will become the first Brit to win the Open since Nick Faldo in 1992. The victory will let the world (i.e., the U.S.) in on the secret that Tour players already know -- Howell is a top-flight, world-class golfer. Tiger's two victories have come at the Old Course, but Royal Liverpool plays into his strengths with four reachable par-5s. The shock of a missed cut at Winged Foot and coming off a strong second-place finish at the Western Open add up to a successful defense of the Open Championship. Smart money is on Tiger, since he's won roughly one of every four majors he's entered -- and this is his fourth major start since his last win ('05 British Open). But I've never been particularly smart, so I'll take Harrington, who has the length, putter and variety of shots needed to win on a links. Something tells me Tiger is going to be as focused and motivated this week as he has ever been. Hoylake also sets up well for him: He can blow the ball over most of the trouble and the already playable rough is dying in the heat. Usually the driver is the key for him, but this week I think it's the putter -- he simply has to roll the ball better than he has at recent majors. He's finished second and fifth in the last three years, and he's always around the lead. He's actually putted better of late and should fare better on the slower British surfaces. He's due to win a British Open just because he's always lurking on the leader board. Plus, ruining the annoying Phil-versus-Tiger hype is just the kind of buzz-kill thing he'd do. Potential Surprises Arron Oberholser
Finished 14th at the Masters and 16th at the U.S. Open. Already owns a win this year and has the feistiness Euro fans enjoy supporting.
Colin Montgomerie
Someone whispered to me that Monty is primed for a great Open finish. Hope it's better than the one in June.
David Duval
With his five-year exemption disappearing, look for him not only to make the cut but to finish proudly. Duval's irons are dialed, but more importantly, his drives are landing inside the same zip code.Jim Furyk
His missed-cut streak at British Opens (now at five) will end. Look for a breakout effort from Furyk this week at Hoylake, where his course management will help him avoid the out-of-bounds that lurk on 10 of the 18 holes.
Phil Mickelson
Mickelson has never finished better than third in previous Open Championships. In fact, his average finish is 52nd -- so it would be a huge surprise to see him hoist the Claret Jug.
Sergio Garcia
It's about time for a Spaniard to win a British Open again. Olazábal came close last year, but it'd be a surprise this year since his play has lacked consistency.Paul Casey
He disappeared after the hub-bub over his overblown anti-American comments, but he's been playing great golf over the last two months.
Charl Schwartzel
The latest in the line of fine South African players, Schwartzel has shown steady improvement on the Euro tour this year and currently sits 20th on the Order of Merit, thanks to a second in last week's Scottish Open.
David Duval
Duval made another cut last week at the John Deere, and he's looking and sounding more like his old self. It's been exactly five years since he held the Claret Jug, and if he can avoid the O.B. areas off the tee at Royal Liverpool, he could shock everyone.Ernie Els
Everyone has forgotton about Easy, and rightfully so, given his middling play over the last two years. But Els is most comfortable when expectations are the lowest, and he does have a great record at the Open.
Paul Casey
He hasn't made a splash in the U.S. since his college days, but Casey has been lights-out on the Euro tour this year, where he is far more comfortable. His powerful game is perfect for Hoylake, and he is eager to start contending at the majors.English golfers
"England swings like a pendulum do," Roger Miller (no relation to Johnny) once sang, and there's a feeling that an Englishman is going to step up and grab a British Open at home. Best bets are Luke Donald and David Howell, even though their Open track records are hideous, but there's something about the crazily attired Ian Poulter and his spiky hair that fits in at a course known as Royal O.B. for its funky out-of-bounds markers.
Ben Curtis
The former Open champ is playing well again and is no longer a one-hit wonder. Consider yourself warned.
José María Olazábal
Resurrecting his game with Butch Harmon's help.Potential Disappointments Retief Goosen
Love his game, but Goose admits his play is "rubbish," missing too many fairways and greens. Not promising. Missed the cut at the U.S. Open.
Sergio Garcia
Earned a WD and MC in his last two events. Nothing points to better times.
Ernie Els
Can't remember the last time a great player's game has fallen with less fanfare.Ernie Els
We still haven't seen Els do a thing this year. The knee has to still be taking its toll, if not physically then mentally.
Retief Goosen
Goosen has been lost all year. Coming off a missed cut at Winged Foot, we will probably see more of the same this week at Royal Liverpool.
Vijay Singh
Singh did win the week prior to the U.S. Open and had a decent showing at the Western Open, but Hoylake will be a different story. Expect lackluster play from Vijay.Retief Goosen
Hate to pick on the guy, but he's just not playing well, especially with the driver.
Geoff Ogilvy
He's taken a lot of time off since winning the U.S. Open, and his game won't stand up well if the wind blows.
Ernie Els
Is it possible to still consider Els a disappointment?Vijay Singh
I got a ton of mail when I left him out of my top 10 picks last week, but something is clearly amiss in Veej's game. He's been missing it both ways off the tee, his putting comes and goes (as always) and he has shown an uncharacteristic softness on Sunday. I just don't think he's sharp enough to get it done this week.
Jim Furyk
This fastidious craftsman doesn't seem well-suited for the vagaries of links golf. Though he seems to contend in every major, his Open record is actually pitiful: five missed cuts and a 41st over the last six years.Tiger-Phil plotline
We're at DefCon 2 with hype about Phil and Tiger, so anything short of a victory apparently constitutes a disappointment. At least one of them will get in the mix, though.
Colin Montgomerie
Already had his Poor-Monty moment in the sun this year. He won't be a factor.
Royal Liverpool
With a revised layout (would you move Augusta National's 1st tee to the 3rd hole?) and three new greens (which will stand out like John Daly at a bodybuilder tournament) and once-formidable out-of-bounds areas that won't challenge modern players, its return to the Open rota may be short-lived.
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