Breaking down the final, last thoughts on a great Cup

	X-factor: France midfielder Franck Ribery can give defenses fits and could play a major role in the final against Italy. Bob Martin/SI

Thomas Rongen is a former Dutch national-team player, but he made his name as a go-to coach in America. His résumé includes stops at four Major League Soccer franchises and as head coach of the U.S. Under-20 national team since 2001. Rongen was in Germany for much of the World Cup and continues his periodic analysis for SI.com.

A worthy final

Heading into this World Cup, few teams faced more questions than Italy and France. A lot of people thought France was over the hill and that it couldn't score. Meanwhile, Italy was shadowed by the biggest soccer scandal in national history.

It's fitting that these two teams will meet for the title, because they've both proved everyone wrong. Italy hasn't allowed a goal to the opposition, and its offense is rising to same level, beating Germany with two late goals to advance to its first final since 1994. That's a run that required incredible determination no team has matched -- except for perhaps France.

After their first two matches, Les Bleus faced early elimination again, as they did in '02. But they turned a corner against Togo in their final group-stage match, winning 2-0, and I think that revitalized them. Then they beat one of better teams -- Spain, 3-1 -- in the Round of 16 and toyed with Brazil in the quarterfinals. France has yielded only two goals, but now it will be going up against the best defensive team in the tournament.

What Italy needs to do to win

The Azzurri are masters at defending -- they play behind the ball and absorb pressure better than any team. Offensively, it hasn't been the big names that have carried Italy this far; it's been its strength on the flanks from the attacking fullbacks.

Fabio Grosso both drew the penalty kick that beat Australia in the Round of 16 and scored the winning goal against Germany in the semis. Meanwhile, Gianluca Zambrotta opened the scoring against Ukraine in the quarterfinals and assisted Luca Toni on the second goal in Italy's 3-0 win. If Grosso and Zambrotta can continue to get involved in the attack, it could be a long night for France.

What France needs to do to win

If Les Bleus play like they did against Portugal and create few scoring chances, they won't last against that Italian defense. France is a more adventurous and creative team that will have to take some chances. Midfielders Florent Malouda and Franck Ribery are really withdrawn wingers. If they can keep Zambrotta and Grosso in their defensive shells, they could unbalance Italy.

But then France has to attack. Where it could succeed is by allowing the foursome of Thierry Henry, Zinédine Zidane, Malouda and Ribery the freedom to attack and play off the cuff. They're all good at dribble penetration and breaking pressure down. Ribery in particular has shown he can bypass a defender and force defenses into situations they don't want to be in. Risk-taking might make the difference for France, but that could easily backfire, too -- the Italians are infamous for pouncing on mistakes.

Who will be champions?

At this stage in the tournament, fatigue becomes a huge factor. The Italians have looked fresher and stronger throughout, while you see signs of France tiring -- especially its captain. You watch Zidane's body language and you can tell he's giving it everything he has at age 34. There have been games in this tournament where he's looked as if he can't even stand anymore. But he has inspired the players around him with his unbelievable perseverance, and his team has rallied around him.

If you go back to my first Notebook, you'll see that I picked France as one of my dark horses to win the title. I'm sticking with that now. If the sports gods are good to us, this World Cup will end with a feel-good story and send Zizou out a champion once again. France 1, Italy 0.

Germany already winners

There's not much to talk about in the third-place match, which I think the Germans will win to finish the tournament on a high note. They've been a great story, too. Jürgen Klinsmann created an exciting young team that had the whole country at a standstill. Their loss to Italy in Dortmund was a real heartbreaker. But as a nation, Germany really has been a winner here, pulling off a fantastic tournament that, in my mind, has been one of the best in memory.

The stadiums are some of the best in the world and the organization has been superb, from the actual matches to the country's infrastructure, which moved millions from city to city. The ratings have been huge all over the world and this tournament's success will really force FIFA to come up with ways to make South Africa as successful in 2010. That's a huge challenge, and the bar has been set pretty high.

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