Padres' rotation puts a scare in possible playoff foes

	Although he has struggled, with a 9-14 record this year, Jake Peavy is a pitcher few teams would want to face in the playoffs. John W. McDonough/SI
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They were a joke, a team no one took seriously. A year ago the Padres staggered into the postseason barely a .500 team, and when they were trounced in the first round, they lived up to their billing as one of the worst postseason teams ever. This year? The consensus among executives and scouts I talked to over the last week was this: If they reach the playoffs, the Friars are a real threat to topple the Mets in October.

"Their pitching is better [than New York's], and I'm not sure it's that close," says one scout. Adds an exec, "Pedro's health should terrify the Mets. He didn't look right [during his start against Pittsburgh on Friday]. I know there's still time before the playoffs start, but he just doesn't look able to carry the load they need him to." Meanwhile, Tom Glavine has been, according to a scout, "so-so since the All-Star break. He's looked more like a middle-of-the-rotation guy than a No. 1 or No. 2. I prefer power pitchers in the playoffs."

Power pitchers such as Jake Peavy and Chris Young, perhaps. Peavy's strikeout ratio (9.41 Ks per nine innings) ranks second only to Johan Santana's, and Young's (8.36) is seventh among major league starters. San Diego also has better starting-pitching depth than the Mets. "He may be hobbling right now, but David Wells comes up big in October. No one wants to face him in a series," says a scout. "And Woody Williams would be the Mets' No. 3 starter."

Though it was bludgeoned by the Dodgers on Monday night in L.A.'s astonishing win at Chavez Ravine, San Diego's golden bullpen remains the club's biggest weapon. "It's our backbone," says Young. The late-inning trio of Cla Meredith, Scott Linebrink and Trevor Hoffman is the best in baseball. "It's pretty much game over if they've got a lead going into the seventh or eighth," says an exec.

That isn't something any team is laughing about now.

News & notes

• The Marlins have been baseball's best story this year, but it's time for the organization to prioritize their future over 2006 and start resting their young arms. Anibal Sanchez and Scott Olsen have long surpassed their career highs in innings, and Josh Johnson has been experiencing forearm tightness. "Great job by them this year, but they've fallen out of it," says one exec. "The concern now has to be the health of the pitchers. If they stay healthy, they're a playoff team next year."

• The Astros' future looks bleak. Many believe Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte won't return next season, leaving only Roy Oswalt as a sure thing in the rotation. The lineup is in even worse shape. "That team has to get into the rebuilding mode, because they're not going anywhere," says a scout. "Give the youngsters like Troy Patton and Hunter Pence and Hector Gimenez a shot. Getting a Carlos Lee this offseason isn't going to make them a contender. They've got issues."

• How much blame will Ozzie Guillen get for the White Sox's uninspired play over the last three months? Since Guillen called Jay Mariotti a "fag," Chicago has gone 39-41 after a 45-25 start. "People are going to start pointing fingers at him," says an exec, "and it'll be interesting to see how he reacts to that."

• Rich Harden's start on Thursday -- his first since June -- is the most important of the week. If he comes back strong, the A's are a bona fide World Series contender. Harden, however, was touching only the low 90s on the radar gun in his simulated start last week (typically he's in the mid to upper 90s), and that should be a big reason for concern. Meanwhile, Oakland starters have a history of tailing off in September and October, and this year is no different: Since Sept. 4, the rotation's ERA is 6.39.

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