Twins primed for October run; Cardinals done?

	The Dodgers need Taiwanese left-hander Hong-Chih Kuo to neutralize the Mets' left-handed sluggers. AP
	RELATED • First-round schedule and starters • Postseason X-Factors for every team • DONOVAN: A's-Twins ALDS preview • DONOVAN: Tigers-Yankees ALDS preview • DONOVAN: Dodgers-Mets NLDS preview • DONOVAN: Cardinals-Padres NLDS preview

Who will have a star-making October?
The Twins' underrated closer, Joe Nathan. Baseball Prospectus identifies strength of closer as one of the three critical ingredients in predicting postseason success, and no ninth-inning finisher has been as dominant. Nathan has learned to throw his curveball for strikes, and as a result he has been nearly unhittable (36 for 38 in saves, 1.56 ERA, .158 BAA, 12.51 K/9), even better than he was in 2004, when he notched 44 saves. He anchors a bullpen that is the best in baseball; its 2.91 ERA is more than a half-run better than any other in the league. Enter the late innings trailing this team and you're done: Minnesota is a sick 71-1 when leading after seven innings. Relievers Juan Rincon (2.91 ERA), Pat Neshek (2.19), Jesse Crain (3.52) and Dennys Reyes (0.98) are a big reason the Twins are built for a run deep into October.

Which rookie will shine?
Not Justin Verlander or Matt Garza but Hong-Chih Kuo. The Taiwanese rookie left-hander (he's from the same town as Chien-Ming Wang) may turn out to be the most important player in the Mets-Dodgers series. It's well-documented that the Mets struggle miserably against lefties, and Kuo -- armed with a 95-mph fastball and a killer slider -- has the stuff to shut down the high-powered New York lineup.

Are the Cardinals DOA?
As horrendous as they have been over the last two weeks, St. Louis is capable of topping the Padres in a short series. They have a chance because ace Chris Carpenter is slotted to make two starts, and Albert Pujols is the rare kind of player who can single-handedly win a series. Adam Wainwright may not have the track record, but he has the stuff to assert himself as a solid closer on a staff that's otherwise in shambles. That said, the Cardinals are by far the NL's biggest long shot to make the World Series. "Amazing how quickly this team fell apart," says an NL executive. "I think the truth is, they were never really a first-place team. But any team with Carpenter, Pujols and [Scott] Rolen shouldn't be taken lightly, no matter how awful they have looked."

Will the A's at last win a postseason series?
"My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f------ luck," Billy Beane famously said in Moneyball. Under Beane the A's are 0 for 4 in postseason series; they are 0-9 in playoff games in which they could have clinched. Will their luck change this October? They already caught a bad break when the Royals steamrollered the Tigers this weekend and the Twins were anointed AL Central champs -- and therefore the A's first-round opponent. More bad news came when Rich Harden made his start on Sunday; the brittle right-hander struggled badly with his control and velocity (he reached only 91 mph on the radar gun) and didn't show that he can be much of a factor in the postseason. Barry Zito could be in for an even bigger payday this offseason as a free agent if he comes up big against Johan Santana, but the pitching matchups beyond Game 1 still favor Minnesota. When the A's lose, it won't be because of bad luck. In this series they're simply the lesser team.

Of all the contenders, who has the best top-of-the-rotation starters?
An NL exec chimes in: "There just isn't that rotation out there that really scares you, like last year with the Astros having Oswalt, Clemens and Pettitte and the White Sox and their guys. In the AL the Twins have Santana but no real depth behind him. The Yankees don't beat you with their pitching. [In the NL] the Mets are absolutely a mess without Pedro. I like the two West teams, and between them I'd have to say the Padres, with [Jake] Peavy and [Chris] Young. If those two are on, watch out."

Does the Tigers' dream season end here?
Yes -- they are the AL's biggest long shot to make the World Series. Starting pitching has been the main reason for the Motown revival, but Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman look gassed. The Tigers' lineup ranks last in OBP and first in strikeouts among the playoff teams, which means that Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson don't need to be in top form for the Yankees to waltz into the ALCS.

Who will advance to next week?
The picks here: Yankees over Tigers in three; Twins over A's in five; Dodgers over Mets in five; Padres over Cardinals in four.