
Floyd's next moveWhat are the chances that Landis will clear his name?Posted: Friday July 28, 2006 2:10PM; Updated: Friday July 28, 2006 3:17PM
Austin Murphy recently returned from covering the 2006 Tour de France for both Sports Illustrated and SI.com. He was the first journalist to speak with Floyd Landis on Thursday when reports surfaced that the Tour winner had tested positive for abnormal levels of testosterone. We caught up with Murphy to find out what's next for Landis, what his chances are to retain his title and how a possible new scandal will affect Lance Armstrong and the sport of cycling in general. SI.com: What are the chances Floyd Landis will be successful in clearing his name? Murphy: Let say this: I'm reading and hearing that a lot of people are waiting on bated breath for the B sample. Floyd has told me that he himself doesn't expect the test result to be any different. At that point he will then be fired by his team, Phonak, and then stripped -- at least temporarily -- of the Tour title. He will then appeal, and he and his lawyers will attempt to prove that this abnormally high ratio of testosterone to epitestosterone is, like he said repeatedly in his press conference on Friday, naturally occurring. He's claiming that he's in the 99th percentile of guys who just have a higher level. I just talked to Dr. Gary Wadler in Long Island [N.Y.]. He's a specialist associated with New York University who helped come up with part of the World Anti-Doping Agency's code, and he's saying that this doesn't all add up. There aren't these dramatic variations in your test levels of testosterone; they're fairly consistent in your life. There should be some record of Landis having high levels, which he kept claiming was the case. SI.com: So what is Landis' next move? Murphy: The next step he can take when he appeals is his last resort: a test called IRNS, or mass spectrometry. Wadler says this test doesn't care about whether or not your body produces extra amounts of testosterone. It's a chemical test that tells us whether or not this testosterone was either introduced from an outside source or if it is naturally occurring. If they go to it and the testosterone is determined to be of exogenous origin, Landis is toast. This test result is not a smoking gun; it's an irregularity. One of the things I asked Floyd on Thursday was, "What was your ratio?" WADA recently reduced the acceptable ratio from six-to-one to four-to-one. Some argue that's so low and that it'll ultimately snag some innocent people because human variation is such that they'll get some false positives. Landis wouldn't say what his ratio was. If it was 11-to-one, he's got some explaining to do. If he tested four-to-one, that's within the realm of what is explainable, and he shouldn't be sanctioned. But no one has those numbers yet, so we're in a fog waiting for those numbers to come in. There are still some pretty big questions and issues out there. We live in a society where we want resolution now, we want to celebrate him or damn him, and it's not going to happen right away. We won't have clarity today or this weekend. SI.com: Has Landis already been found guilty by the court of public opinion? Murphy: He thinks he has. He's even said if he were a casual sports fan just trying to follow this whole situation, he'd presume he was guilty too, just based on the track record of the sport. He doesn't blame anyone for jumping to that conclusion and he believes, to some extent, he's already been judged. On Friday at his press conference he asked people to please withhold judgment. He also asked -- and to me, this is a little bit of a big request -- that the media stop referring to this as a doping case. I wish him luck in that endeavor. That's as much of an uphill battle as Stage 17 of the Tour. SI.com: Does any of this affect Lance Armstrong or dredge up old demons for him? Murphy: I've got a request in to speak with him, so I can't yet say exactly where he is on this. He has said, however, that he'll have no comment until there's a B sample. He was on top of the cycling world for seven years, and this looks bad for cycling. On the other hand, 13 riders were kicked off the Tour this year for doping allegations before it even started, and now Landis is under a cloud. Armstrong never tested positive for anything. There's no smoking gun, just innuendo. Maybe this makes him look better and stronger, while others look weaker and more dishonest. SI.com: How much does this incident further tarnish the image of the Tour de France? Murphy: It's another unfortunate blight on a topography that is already comprehensively marred. It's exactly what we didn't need. I referred to this in my magazine story -- I talked about how Landis had redeemed a sullied Tour. All of us who made that point may have to eat those words and let them mock us from the page. If it's true, it's disgusting and makes me sick. It makes me feel like in some ways that I've been wasting my time covering this event. It would feel false and hollow.
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