Still plenty of X factors as draft day approaches

And the winner of the first annual Aaron Rodgers first-round tumbler award is ... would you believe Matt Leinart? OK, so the former Heisman Trophy-winning Southern Cal quarterback won't slide all the way to No. 24, the way Rodgers did on his excruciating 2005 draft day. But if there's a top 10 drama waiting to be played out, it could involve Leinart's fate and the question of how low he could go.

Mock NFL Draft No. 6 Pick Team Pos. Player College Class Ht. Wt. 1 RB Reggie Bush USC Jr. 6-0 200 We believe the Texans when they say they're negotiating with Bush and North Carolina State defensive end Mario Williams. We even believe them when they maintain they have both players rated equally. We also believe that when Paul Tagliabue clears his throat just past noon on Saturday, Bush will be a Texan. Signed or unsigned. 2 OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson Virginia Sr. 6-5 295 You know it's a tricky draft when your mock goes against conventional wisdom at No. 2. Most everyone has the Saints taking Williams if they sit tight in the two spot, but I'm sticking with Ferguson. The Saints' offensive coaches are said to be pounding the desk for him, and new head coach Sean Payton is an offensive guy. To repeat, New Orleans could use a tackle more than another defensive end. 3 QB Vince Young Texas Jr. 6-5 235 I just see Titans owner Bud Adams being positively giddy at the idea of bringing Houston's hometown hero to Nashville, another delicious twist in the decade-long saga that exists between those two cities. I could be wrong, but Norm Chow and Jeff Fisher aren't making this call. The decision belongs to Floyd Reese and Adams, and that spells Young, based on his intriguing upside factor. 4 DE Mario Williams N.C. State Jr. 6-7 285 Logic says this is the slot that makes the most sense for USC quarterback Matt Leinart. And the late buzz is that the Jets are more interested in the big lefty than they've led folks to believe. But the Saints taking Ferguson means that Williams remains on our board. And if that scenario comes to pass, New York will opt for the difference-maker on defense over a quarterback who some maintain is already as good as he's ever going to be. 5 LB A.J. Hawk Ohio State Sr. 6-1 240 The Packers probably think they've got a decent week going, having coaxed Brett Favre back into the fold and signed ex-Raiders cornerback Charles Woodson. But I'm not so sure either one of those moves is great news for Green Bay's rebuilding program. Drafting the athletically gifted Hawk, however, would be another story. If the Packers pull a surprise, it'll mean taking Maryland tight end Vernon Davis just ahead of the 49ers, who covet him. 6 TE Vernon Davis Maryland Jr. 6-3 250 The 49ers have had their sights set on the playmaking former Terrapin tight end for weeks, and he should be there unless No. 5 Green Bay finds him irresistible. In that case, San Francisco would rebound quite nicely, scooping up Hawk to play in the middle of its defense. Then again, 49ers second-year quarterback Alex Smith probably wouldn't take the loss of Davis quite as well as others in the organization. 7 DB Michael Huff Texas Sr. 6-1 205 The Raiders love the hard-hitting former Longhorns defensive back, and the late word is that they'll take him without giving quarterbacks Leinart or Jay Cutler much thought. After all, the last time the Raiders went with a big left-handed quarterback from Southern Cal, they wound up with the Todd Marinovich fiasco on their hands. 8 DT Haloti Ngata Oregon Jr. 6-5 345 The Bills have options galore, none of which they appear to be wild about. They might be willing to trade down with No. 11 St. Louis, which wants to jump ahead of No. 10 Arizona to land quarterback Jay Cutler. Or the Bills could take Leinart or Cutler themselves, given J.P. Losman's struggles. Their interest in Winston Justice appears tepid, so we give them Ngata, who doesn't fit as well in their defense as does Brodrick Bunkley but comes with less baggage. 9 LB Ernie Sims Florida State Jr. 6-0 220 The Lions had their heart set on Michael Huff, but the Raiders ruined those plans. I'm guessing that someone's going to have to sit on Matt Millen when he realizes that Leinart is still available, but under new head coach Rod Marinelli, defense should get the first-round nod. Sims is in the mold of former FSU linebacker Derrick Brooks, who was a perennial Pro Bowl pick while playing for Marinelli in Tampa Bay. 10 QB Matt Leinart USC Sr. 6-5 225 Dennis Green has always preached that he stays true to his board on draft day. If so, he can't take a pass on Leinart, even though the quarterback would represent a pick for the future rather than the present in Tempe. The Cardinals would also take Cutler just ahead of Sims if Leinart is gone when their selection rolls around. Mock Draft Continued