Chicago: They're formidable, but can we cut the undefeated season nonsense right now, please? Both the Vikings and Cardinals had the Bears beaten, but, with apologies to Dennis Green, let 'em off the hook! That said, Chicago can make its reservations for hosting the NFC title game right now and not look back. The road to Miami is going to lead past the shores of Lake Michigan.

Atlanta: I'm giving the Falcons the nod in the toughest division in football, but it's not because I see either the Saints or Panthers fading into oblivion in the season's second half. Having already lost at New Orleans, Atlanta must win its Thanksgiving weekend home game against the Saints if it hopes to have done the necessary tiebreaker work. And the Falcons should have enough wins in the bank to survive even a tough December schedule.

Seattle: Things have been a bit ragged for the defending conference champs, but the Seahawks are going to get healthy in some key spots and eventually separate from the always-mediocre pack in the NFC West. In Seattle's final nine games, it faces only three teams that currently have winning records: St. Louis, Denver and San Diego, and two of those contests will be at the friendly confines of Qwest Field.

NFC wild cards

Dallas: The Cowboys are my pick to get hot down the stretch and play the role of dangerous wild-card qualifier, in the mode of Pittsburgh in last year's AFC playoff field. And like the Steelers, Dallas might find itself sitting 7-5 or so before it really starts to make its move. But having three of their last four at Texas Stadium is going to make the difference in December for the Tony Romo-led Cowboys.

Minnesota: The Vikings looked anything but playoff bound against New England, but while the Saints and Panthers bump each other off down the stretch, Minnesota could sneak into the final NFC slot with a 10-win season. The Vikings are 4-1 in the NFC, and have beaten Carolina if it comes down to a tiebreaker. Plus, Minnesota only has two games remaining against teams with winning records, and one of those is against 4-3 St. Louis at home.

The other contenders

Carolina: It pains me to consign my NFC Super Bowl pick to the outside-looking-in category after eight weeks, but John Fox's team is just 2-4 against teams that currently have a winning record. That's simply not good enough.

New Orleans: Even though they're 5-2 and in first place (by virtue of their win over Atlanta in Week 3), the Saints can't afford another mis-step like the one against Baltimore. The road to nine or 10 wins is challenging.

St. Louis: I haven't really bought into the Rams this season, and here's why: A loss at San Francisco, a narrow, gift of a win at Arizona, ditto at Green Bay, and consecutive defeats at the hands of Seattle and San Diego.

Philadelphia: Say what you will about the Eagles, they've never been this streaky before under the leadership of steady Andy Reid. Philly could still get its act together, but that three-game NFC East December road trip will be a killer.