Top conference seeds mean little once playoffs start

	As Peyton Manning is all-too-aware, a sterling regular season guarantees a team nothing once the postseason starts. Al Tielemans/SI

You realize we're doing it again, don't you? Overemphasizing the importance of the No. 1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. It's a mistake we always seem to start making around this time every year.

Over the course of the past three weeks, as the 9-0 Colts and 8-1 Bears have won some big showdowns and opened up multi-game leads between themselves and their nearest competitors for top billing in their respective conferences, we've begun to mentally assign more significance to their spot in the standings than is actually merited.

I know, I know. But hey, at least I'm pointing it out while corrections can still be made.

Indy wins at Denver and New England in consecutive weeks, and we quickly pontificate that the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC now leads through the RCA Dome. Ditto for Chicago in the NFC, in the wake of the Bears' resounding conquest of the Giants Sunday night at the Meadowlands.

But not necessarily. Historically speaking, locking up the No. 1 seed has made reaching the Super Bowl nothing more than a 50-50 proposition. Check out the following:

• In the 16 seasons in which the NFL has had a seeding system in the playoffs and a 12-team field (1990-2005), 16 of the 32 top seeds (50 percent) have failed to reach the Super Bowl.

• For 12 consecutive seasons ('94-05), at least one of the No. 1 seeds has been eliminated before the Super Bowl. The only time neither No. 1 made it to the Super Bowl during that 12-year period was '97, when both San Francisco and Kansas City fell short.

• Only twice in those 16 seasons have both top seeds turned their homefield advantages into Super Bowl berths, the most recent being Buffalo and Dallas in '93. Washington and Buffalo were the other exceptions to the rule in '91.

• All told, the AFC's top seed has been a shakier playoff bet, failing to reach the Super Bowl 10 times in 16 years, as opposed to the NFC's track record of six misses in 16 seasons.

• And how's this for consistency and quirkiness? For four years in a row ('01-04), a No. 1 seed from Pennsylvania couldn't close the deal and punch their Super Bowl ticket -- Pittsburgh in '01 and '04, Philadelphia in '02-03.