Players most likely to spend their career with one club

	It's hard to envision a scenario in which three-time NBA champion Tim Duncan won't finish his career where it started. Greg Nelson/SI

As this is being written, there is still no answer for The Answer. It's always a big deal when a star player such as Allen Iverson changes uniforms -- and it should be -- but it's not like it's unprecedented.

Wilt Chamberlain, the greatest offensive force in the history of the game, changed uniforms twice. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Oscar Robertson played for different teams. Four of the 10 elected starters in last year's All-Star Game (Shaquille O'Neal, Jermaine O'Neal, Tracy McGrady and Steve Nash) have been in different locales, as have reserves Ray Allen, Elton Brand, Rip Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace, Ben Wallace, Vince Carter, Chauncey Billups and Gilbert Arenas.

Which got us to thinking: Which active players have the best chance of staying with one team throughout their career, the John Stockton Award, if you will? (Stockton played for the Utah Jazz for 19 seasons.) It goes without saying that they will be elite players, but it isn't always about what happens on the court.

Sometimes a player seems bigger than his market, which was the case, for example, when Shaq fled Orlando for Los Angeles. And sometimes players move because organizations become antsy and want to change things up. In a small market, for example, the Jazz are much less likely to make a major move than, say, the Knicks. (This is not to suggest that's the big reason Stockton stuck around for 19 years; he was too good and too plugged into the Jerry Sloan system for either party to have pressed for a change.)

Before we get to the players likely to wear one uniform, I'm going to eliminate several obvious ones.

LeBron James: If his Cleveland Cavaliers don't win within a few years, there will be a lot of pressure to get him to a big-market team.

Kobe Bryant: Sure, he likes the big stage of L.A., but Bryant is a competitor first and foremost. If the Lakers can't get it done, he will want to go someplace where he can and get back at Shaq for winning a post-divorce title before he did.

Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce: Inevitably, things will get so bad that changes will have to be made.

Dirk Nowitzki: Mark Cuban loves him, but the Dallas Mavericks owner is not a status-quo guy. He will shake things up if the Mavs don't get another chance to win it all.

Shawn Marion and Amaré Stoudemire: Marion is the Phoenix Suns' all-everything, but his versatility makes him attractive trade bait. And it's possible to see STAT (Stand Tall And Talented, Stoudemire's nickname for himself) getting antsy if the Suns can't go all the way.

Carmelo Anthony: He's been a good citizen in Denver so far this season, but do you really think a blowup with coach George Karl is not impossible?

OK, onto the five-pack. In order from least to most likely, here's my list of players for the Stockton Award.

5. Yao Ming, Houston Rockets
Tracy McGrady will leave Houston before he does. The organization loves him, Houston has a large and adoring Chinese community, and Yao is starting to feel entirely alive in Houston.

4. Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
As the franchise struggles to stay afloat in its hometown, it will be looking for heroes. Paul fits the bill.

3. Kirk Hinrich, Chicago Bulls
OK, they can't find another Jordan, but Hinrich is the guy who will establish the Bulls' new image: hard-boiled.

2. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
He brought them a championship in just his third season, and Miami is a good town to find fame and fortune.

1. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
The organization built the practice facility near Duncan's home to keep him from looking elsewhere when he was a free agent. No player is more associated with one team than T.D. with the Spurs, whom he has helped bring three championships since 1999.