
R-E-S-P-E-C-T (cont.)Posted: Friday January 13, 2006 12:48PM; Updated: Saturday January 14, 2006 2:53PM How much are relievers worth?
Another common critique of the short reliever is the refrain, "anybody can close." Anybody can play first base, too, but that doesn't mean they are going to perform at an above-average level over the long haul. According to Baseball Prospectus, the best relievers of 2005 each were worth an extra three to four wins more than average relievers. In 2004, there were four pitchers -- Brad Lidge (Astros), Eric Gagne (Dodgers), Joe Nathan (Twins) and Mariano Rivera (Yankees) -- who were worth about six wins above average. For comparison, elite everyday players such as Derrek Lee or Albert Pujols are worth about 10; typical All-Stars about seven. How valuable was Gagne during his Cy Young-winning 2003 campaign? Dave Studeman of The Hardball Times, who wrote a detailed study of the history of bullpen usage recently, credited Gagne with 7.17 probable wins added that season. (Speaking of which, make sure to order a copy of the groundbreaking Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006. Trust me on this one.) Five or six wins doesn't sound like much, but it's more than enough to swing a pennant race. Moreover, these numbers can't measure the psychological boost teams gain from having a dominant closer or the effect of demoralizing losses that come about with blown saves. Dealing with specialistsIn 1955, Clem Labine went 13-5 with 11 saves in 144 2/3 innings, mostly in relief. Mike Marshall tossed 208 1/3 innings in 1974 without making a start. Bob Stanley pitched in 48 games, all in relief, for the 1982 Red Sox, going 12-7 in 168 1/3 innings. Pitchers like them and Hall of Fame reliever Hoyt Wilhelm aren't coming back anytime soon, not as long as starting pitchers are pampered from Day 1, rarely asked to go beyond the sixth inning of a start. Last season, St. Louis' Chris Carpenter and Florida's Dontrelle Willis tied for the major-league lead in complete games with seven, a higher total than that of 17 teams. Like it or not, the modern bullpen ushered in by Sutter and Dennis Eckersley is here to stay. There isn't any way around it -- setup man and closers are a critically important part of the game. Specialization -- especially in the form of the late-inning reliever and the DH -- is here to stay. As for the Hall of Fame, the voters should deal with relievers and DHs the same way they treat players from other positions: take the best of the best, the ones who exerted an uncommon influence on the game and made the deepest impressions during their primes, and make them Hall of Famers. Come to think of it, that description fits Sutter rather nicely.
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