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Best of the bunch

Bagwell clearly a better player than Sosa, Palmeiro

Posted: Thursday March 30, 2006 1:38PM; Updated: Thursday March 30, 2006 2:03PM
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Jeff Bagwell was a Hall of Fame-caliber player despite failing to hit 500 homers or accumulate 3,000 hits.
Jeff Bagwell was a Hall of Fame-caliber player despite failing to hit 500 homers or accumulate 3,000 hits.
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When Jeff Bagwell all but retired this week, there was too much talk about insurance claims and too little recognition of what a terrific ballplayer he has been for the Houston Astros the past 15 seasons.

If nothing else, it is refreshing to see a slugger leave the game with his integrity intact and legacy secured. Consider the fate of two of Bagwell's contemporaries, Rafael Palmeiro and Sammy Sosa, who are still alive in the medical and technical sense but otherwise dead to the baseball world. The same can be said for Mark McGwire, who died on the congressional witness stand, and Game of Shadows anti-hero Barry Bonds, whose chase of the all-time home run record will be ignored by some and scorned by others.

Palmeiro, Sosa, McGwire, Bonds. That's your cast for George A. Romero's next B movie, Zombies from the Steroid Era.

Bagwell didn't end his career with the sexy round numbers -- 3,000 hits, 500 home runs -- that trigger worldwide genuflection, but he was a better ballplayer than Palmeiro or Sosa, guys who reached one or, in the case of Palmeiro, both of those demarcations.

When comparing the careers of ballplayers, it's important to look past the numbers on the back of their bubble-gum cards and use the advanced metrics available to us in this golden age of statistical baseball analysis. Adjusting for park effects (10 home runs at Wrigley Field come a lot easier than 10 home runs at the Astrodome) and level of difficulty are crucial to understanding the value of a career, as is taking into account contributions made on defense.

Take a look at how these three players compare when using the following metrics: WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player), RCAA (Runs Created Above Average), Adjusted-OPS+ (OPS index adjusted for park and league difficulty; 100 is average) and Bill James' Win Shares. WARP and Win Shares each take offense and defense into account; the other two measure only offensive contributions.

WARP
Bagwell: 126.5
Palmeiro: 119
Sosa: 93.7

RCAA
Bagwell: 680
Palmeiro: 572
Sosa: 338

Adjusted-OPS+
Bagwell: 150
Palmeiro: 132
Sosa: 129

Win Shares
Palmeiro: 394
Bagwell: 387
Sosa: 311

(See below for notes on sources.)

Bagwell is the clear winner in three of the four categories, with Palmeiro leading only in Win Shares and Sosa trailing in all three.

Accounting for park factors is the key here, since Bagwell played his first nine seasons in the cavernous Astrodome while Sosa romped around in Wrigley and Palmeiro alternated between hitters' paradises in Baltimore and Texas. That helps make up for the fact that Bagwell trailed the other two by a significant margin in home runs -- 449 for Bagwell, 569 for Palmeiro and 588 for Sosa. The Astros played in the Astrodome from 1965 to '99, during which they had only two 40-plus homer seasons by a player -- Bagwell in '97 and '99.

Bagwell's prodigious adjusted-OPS+ of 150 is the 30th best mark of all time. Take a look at the 29 names ahead of his on the list. Nineteen are in the Hall of Fame. Shoeless Joe Jackson would have been No. 20 if he were eligible. Another four are still active but have a pretty good shot of getting in: Bonds, Albert Pujols, Frank Thomas and Manny Ramirez.

Bagwell didn't reach the "magic numbers" that bring the rubber-stamp Hall of Fame election from the BBWAA voters, but it's clear he is more deserving of the honor than either Sosa or Palmeiro. More important, Bagwell is also more deserving of our respect.

SOURCES: WARP (Baseballprospectus.com), RCAA (Lee Sinins), OPS+ (baseball-reference.com), Win Shares (Bill James Handbook)

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