How much do free passes really affect fantasy values?
Posted: Friday May 12, 2006 3:21PM; Updated: Friday May 12, 2006 3:22PM
Keeping the walks to a minimum is a big reason for Brandon Webb's strong start.
Doug Pensinger/Getty Images
The art of the walk has become a lot more noticeable these days, thanks to the strategy of pitching around Barry Bonds, not to mention Moneyball drawing attention to players with great patience at the plate. However, unless your league plays with walks, on-base percentage or OPS as a category, it might be a bit overlooked in trying to evaluate talent. On the other hand, walks play a major part in evaluating pitchers since it shows up prominently in WHIP/ratio.
In this week's column, I'll take a look at how walks (either an excess or lack of) plays a part (or possibly not as much as you might think) in the success of a handful of players this season. I'll start with pitchers then move over to the hitters.
Under Control
Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks: One reason why he's the first pitcher to go 6-0 this season is his control. Two seasons removed from his 7-16, 3.59 ERA (because of 28 unearned runs) and 119-walk campaign, Webb has just six free passes in 58 2/3 innings so far. He's getting all the aspects of his game together, which could mean a breakout year is on the horizon.
Roy Halladay, Blue Jays: He's always been sharp with his control, and his seven walks in 40 1/3 innings so far attest to that. However, it's a bit strange that he's only recorded 21 strikeouts so far (and that's after getting six on Monday). The rest of his numbers are about what you expect from him, so it looks like those K's could bounce back soon enough. Oddly, his walk and strikeout numbers are exactly the same as Brad Radke. The rest of the numbers, though, not anywhere close to each other.
Francisco Liriano, Twins: As mentioned with Radke, Minnesota pitchers just don't walk anybody. (Radke, Scott Baker and Carlos Silva all have single-digit walks) But this year, they're not getting anybody out either. However, Liriano is proving he's got control and the stuff to be a top-notch pitcher in the future. Through Wednesday's games, Liriano has just four walks and 28 strikeouts in 20 relief innings. He's in line for big things very soon.
Ben Sheets, Brewers: Before he returned to the DL, his K:BB ratio was magnificent (28:1 in just 20 1/3 innings). However, he also gave up 27 hits and 15 runs en route to a 1-3 record, so sometimes those walk and strikeout numbers don't tell the whole story.
Out of Control
Daniel Cabrera, Orioles: He started the season with 16 walks in his first two starts, then had just nine in his next four. But the roof caved in yet again when he issued seven walks to the Tigers on Tuesday. His WHIP is still a ghastly 1.69, and his saving grace right now is his 40 strikeouts in 37 1/3 innings. But those K's come at a big price so far.
Doug Davis, Brewers: He was never a paragon of control (93 walks last season), but he showed a knack for the strikeout (208 in 2005). This season, the walks are still lingering (32 walks in 44 innings) but the strikeouts are disappearing (only 28). That would help explain his early 5.32 ERA, that includes both a nine-run outing and a separate nine-walk outing.
Randy Johnson, Yankees: The Big Unit has lost a bit of his control in recent games, which would explain the rise in his ERA. After issuing no walks in his first three starts, Johnson has issued 14 in his past five starts, including a season-high five against the Red Sox on Tuesday. Oddly, that ended a three-game winning streak in which his ERA was 5.49. More disconcerting than the walks, though, is that he's struck out eight just once (in his second start) and no more than five otherwise.
Franklyn German, Marlins: He's on the DL now, so he shouldn't be on your radar at this point, but while he was considered a potential candidate to get saves, he didn't help his cause by walking 14 and striking out just six in 12 innings of relief work. He might have allowed just seven hits in that time, but all those walks make up for it.