A 36-year analysis of the NFL's most prized draft slots

	The Packers eventually got Brett Favre in 1992 (trade). But Troy Aikman would have been an interesting draftee for Green Bay. AP

At approximately 4:15 on Sunday afternoon, either the Detroit Lions or Oakland Raiders will be "On the Clock" for next April's NFL draft. One of these woeful 2-13 teams will have immediate negotiating rights to the elite prospects. But before that superfluous hype machine begins with televised Senior Bowl practices and climate-controlled Pro Days -- "You're telling me that junior WR, who only had 16 catches last year, runs a 4.38 40 time? Yes!" -- here's a historical analysis of the No. 1 and 2 picks, dating back to 1970 (the first season after the NFL-AFL merger).

(Perhaps next week, we'll even explore how the Dallas Cowboys swindled the league's teams to land the No. 1 pick in '74 and No. 2 choices in '75 and '77 -- while posting a 29-13 record, including one Super Bowl berth, in the three preceding seasons.)

Who Will Get The Top Slot?

By most accounts, the Lions hold the "advantage" in the event of a tiebreaker -- whether at 2-14 or 3-13 -- based on their opponents' worse winning percentage. On Sunday, they'll travel to Dallas; and the Raiders go cross-country to face the playoff-contending New York Jets. (In Vegas, both clubs are considerable underdogs.)

Detroit fans are likely cheering for a loss (especially since a Christmas Eve win against New Orleans last year robbed the franchise of potentially drafting Reggie Bush). There's also this cautionary tale: In the 1988 season, the Packers held the No. 1-pick tiebreaker over Dallas, as both teams were 3-12 heading into the final game. And thanks to Green Bay's meaningless win over the Cardinals, the Cowboys used that good fortune in '89 to take Troy Aikman at No. 1 -- and Green Bay infamously tabbed Tony Mandarich at No. 2 over supreme talents Barry Sanders, Deion Sanders and Derrick Thomas. Yikes!

Hall of Famers

In a subjective exercise (factoring in current Hall of Famers and potential ones), I count 11 candidates who were drafted No. 1 (Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, Lee Roy Selmon, Aikman, Earl Campbell, Bruce Smith, Vinny Testaverde, Jim Plunkett, Orlando Pace, Carson Palmer and, of course, Peyton Manning) compared to 11 taken at the No. 2 slot (Randy White, Eric Dickerson, Tony Dorsett, Lawrence Taylor, Neil Smith, Marshall Faulk, Donovan McNabb, Julius Peppers, Cornelius Bennett, Archie Manning and maybe, just maybe, Reggie Bush in 2025). The verdict: Push.

Controlling the Draft

Theoretically, the team with the No. 1 pick should have greater flexibility when it comes to draft-day trades. But this year, there is hardly a runaway choice (unlike Palmer in '03, Pace in '97, Aikman or Bo Jackson in '86). And after perusing the countless mock drafts available on Fantasy Football Toolbox, there are eight strong candidates for the top two spots (Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn, Wisconsin OT Joe Thomas, Clemson DE Gaines Adams, Oklahoma RB Adrian Peterson, California RB Marshawn Lynch, Georgia DE Quentin Moses, Louisville QB Brian Brohm and Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson) -- depending on a team's specific needs.

Plus, it's important to remember the 1988 draft, when Atlanta (erroneously) signed DE Aundray Bruce three or four days before the event. (This freed Kansas City up to trade for Detroit's 2nd pick and select borderline Hall of Famer Neil Smith. The Lions subsequently received an extra high pick and took productive safety Bennie Blades at No. 3.) If the Falcons had scouted better or kept their Poker Face for a few days longer, they could have engineered a blockbuster trade involving the top spot -- while also grabbing WRs Sterling Sharpe or Michael Irvin sometime during Round 1.