Rounds 2-7 far more important to a team's success

	Hines Ward is one of many perennial Pro Bowlers who wasn't picked in the first round. The Steelers chose Ward in the third round of the 1998 draft. David Bergman/SI
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I feel for the Houston Texans this week. They're sitting on the first pick in this year's NFL draft, and it seems like they're trying to avoid a curse. They can take Reggie Bush, the most electrifying player in this class, but they really don't need a running back. They can take defensive end Mario Williams, but if he doesn't live up to expectations, they'll get bashed for having made a bad pick. And if they take the player who would address their consistently poor pass protection -- offensive tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson -- they would be selecting a player whose stock doesn't warrant a pick that high.

So what do the Texans do? I don't know. What I do know is that their situation is just one more example of how problematic a first-round pick can be for some teams. In today's NFL, teams spend nearly every waking minute dissecting, analyzing and overthinking the pros and cons of the top prospects. That's why the first round, in my mind, has become the most overrated, overhyped aspect of an overrated, overhyped event. If you want to really enjoy the draft, pay close attention to what happens after the first 32 picks have been made.

It's in rounds 2-7 -- and in the phone calls that are made to undrafted free agents immediately after the draft ends -- that you'll learn more about how well your team did. Why is that? It's simple: The first round is about proving that a player is worth millions, while the other rounds are about deciding which players can really help your team. It may not sound like that big a difference, but it's substantial. It's comparable to choosing which girl you're going to marry and which one you'd like to get to know better.

Last week I asked an old friend of mine -- a man who spent nearly 20 years coaching, scouting and making personnel decisions in the NFL -- about my theory, and he agreed. He told me that in his experience, teams spent the first round searching for players with the appropriate measurables. They wanted physical freaks, and if they couldn't get those guys, they wanted prospects that came as close as possible to being freaks. It was easier to justify the money for such talents.