Can Pujols, Carpenter carry Cardinals past Padres?

Starting pitching

	Jake Peavy returned to his ace form in the second half, making the Padres a dangerous postseason team. AP
	Tale of the Tape NL rank in parenthesis Category Cardinals Padres Head-to-Head Wins 2 4 Runs Scored 781 (6) 731 (13) Runs Allowed 762 (5) 679 (1) Home Runs 184 (5) 161 (12) Stolen Bases 59 (14) 123 (5) K/9.0 Innings 6.11 (14) 6.75 (8) Saves 38 (T9) 50 (1) Defensive Efficiency* .704 (6) .718 (1) * Percentage of balls in play turned into outs, as calculated by Baseball Prospectus COMPLETE FIRST-ROUND SCHEDULE
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ST. LOUIS: A gamble to hold back Chris Carpenter on Sunday worked for manager Tony La Russa. Now the team's only reliable starter (15-8, 3.09 ERA) is ready to go twice, if need be, in the NLDS. And boy, do the Cards need him. No other starter has an ERA under 4.00, and some of them (Jason Marquis) have become practically unstartable. Jeff Suppan is No. 2, with Anthony Reyes, Jeff Weaver and, in an emergency, Marquis in the mix. Good stat: The Cards are 20-12 in Carpenter starts.

SAN DIEGO: Jake Peavy's overall record (11-14, 4.09 ERA) doesn't reflect it, but he's still an ace (4-1, 2.43 ERA in September), and he'll slot in well against Carpenter. After that, 6-foot-10 righty Chris Young (11-5, 3.46) and postseason old-timer David Wells (10-4, 3.15 in 16 career postseason starts) give the Cardinals, arguably, the best rotation in the NL postseason. Clay Hensley and Woody Williams provide depth if the Padres make the NLCS.

EDGE: Padres

Relief pitching

ST. LOUIS: With closer Jason Isringhausen on the disabled list, La Russa has had to mix and match in the bullpen, which is something La Russa loves to do. Braden Looper and Adam Wainwright pull duty as closers, while Josh Hancock and lefties Randy Flores and Tyler Johnson provide much of the setup work.

SAN DIEGO: Trevor Hoffman, the all-time saves king, has 46 of them this year, most in the NL. He's blown five and has a 1.89 ERA. The Padres' bullpen is deep, featuring righties Cla Meredith and Scott Linebrink (righties are hitting .107 against him, and he has a 1.07 ERA). Veteran Alan Embree (72 appearances) is the lefty.

EDGE: Padres

Lineup

ST. LOUIS: Albert Pujols' numbers this year (.331, 49 homers, 137 RBIs, 1.102 OPS) are better than they were last year, when he won the MVP. He has to get some help, though. Leadoff man David Eckstein is beat up, rookie outfielder Chris Duncan fell to Earth last month (.212), and even normally steady third baseman Scott Rolen has slumped (.227 in September). With Jim Edmonds still shaky from his concussions, it's going to be awfully tempting for the Padres to pitch around Pujols and dare the rest of the lineup to beat them.

SAN DIEGO: OK, so they have trouble scoring runs. No regular on this team scored 100 runs, drove in 100, hit .300 or had more than 24 home runs. But they have some weapons. Dave Roberts has had a career year and can steal a base (he has 49). Second baseman Josh Barfield and center fielder Mike Cameron both stole more than 20 bases too. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez had a fine year, and a better September (.341, 16 RBIs, .952 OPS). Mike Piazza still has power. Brian Giles had 100 walks. If they can put it all together....

EDGE: Pujols

Defense

ST. LOUIS: Pujols is Gold Glove-caliber at first base, and Rolen is somewhere around that over at third, though he doesn't seem as strong as he was pre-surgery. The middle of the infield, even with a healthy Eckstein, is shaky. (Sporadic Ronnie Belliard is at second.) And Juan Encarnacion is out of place taking Edmonds' slot in center in a makeshift outfield. Catcher Yadier Molina is good at throwing out runners and should help neutralize the Padres' speed.

SAN DIEGO: This team was built for spacious Petco Park, so it has speed in the outfield (Roberts, Cameron, Giles). Flashy shortstop Khalil Greene has missed much of the year with injuries; neither Geoff Blum nor Manny Alexander is his equal. Gonzalez is learning at first base, along with second baseman Barfield. Piazza is still terrible at throwing out runners. All in all, this is a better-than-average bunch, but not much.

EDGE: Padres

Bottom line

Nobody in the NL has deeper pitching than the Padres, from ace Peavy to the incomparable closer Hoffman. If San Diego had any power in the lineup at all -- really, just a smidgen -- the Padres would be a threat to win the NL pennant. Luckily for them, against the weakest pitching staff in the postseason, they'll be fine. They've played better than any team in the league over the past month. That's not good news for St. Louis.

PREDICTION: Padres in four