Will Pedro-less Mets struggle with erratic Dodgers?

Starting pitching

	David Wright leads a balanced Mets attack that can hit the longball and tear up the basepaths. AP
	Tale of the Tape NL rank in parenthesis Category Dodgers Mets Head-to-Head Wins 3 4 Runs Scored 820 (4) 834 (1) Runs Allowed 751 (4) 731 (3) Home Runs 153 (15) 200 (4) Stolen Bases 128 (2) 146 (1) K/9.0 Innings 6.58 (10) 7.15 (3) Saves 40 (7) 43 (T2) Defensive Efficiency* .691 (12) .708 (2) * Percentage of balls in play turned into outs, as calculated by Baseball Prospectus COMPLETE FIRST-ROUND SCHEDULE
	RELATED • DONOVAN: Tigers-Yankees ALDS preview • DONOVAN: A's-Twins ALDS preview • DONOVAN: Cardinals-Padres NLDS preview

LOS ANGELES: Game 1 starter Derek Lowe (16-8, 3.63 ERA), Brad Penny (16-9, 4.43) and Greg Maddux (6-3, 3.30 since his trade from the Cubs) make a formidable trio at the top of the Dodgers' rotation. All three have been on World Series winners, and they all give a different look: Lowe's sinker, Penny's fastball, Maddux's circle change. After those three, though, it gets dicey. Right now, lefty Hong-Chi Kuo is penciled in as a Game 2 starter.

NEW YORK: With Pedro Martinez out of the postseason, the Mets will rely on Orlando Hernandez to show the way in Game 1. The postseason is a piece of cake for "El Duque," who is 9-3 with a 2.55 ERA in 19 playoff games. Lefty Tom Glavine is no stranger to October either (12-15, 3.58). Glavine, Maddux's old teammate with the Braves, had a fine September (3-1, 3.38). After those two, the Mets will have to lean on been-around-the-block Steve Trachsel (a near-5.00 ERA) and righty John Maine.

EDGE: Dodgers

Relief pitching

LOS ANGELES: Takashi Saito didn't make the team out of spring training, but he has settled into Eric Gagne's closer spot, used a big-breaking slider and very good control and done spectacularly (a 2.07 ERA, 12.29 K/9). Manager Grady Little likes to call on big Jonathan Broxton (11.44 K/9), too, and lefty Joe Beimel. Brett Tomko can eat up some bullpen innings, if needed.

NEW YORK: Lefty Billy Wagner (11.70 K/9), he of the big fastball, is the closer, and he's set up by guys such as Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano and Chad Bradford. This pen has performed so well that the team barely missed a beat when Duaner Sanchez was injured in a car accident, knocking him out for the season. Overall, Mets relievers are a studly 32-15 with a 3.25 ERA.

EDGE: Mets

Lineup

LOS ANGELES: Hot and cold, the Dodgers rely heavily on leadoff man Rafael Furcal, who's had the best year of his career (.300, .369 on-base, .814 OPS) in his first season in L.A. Kenny Lofton adds more speed to the top of the lineup, but the Dodgers often come and go with the next guys in line -- first baseman Nomar Garciaparra, second baseman Jeff Kent and right fielder J.D. Drew. If those guys stay healthy and get hot, the Dodgers will score. If not, they struggle.

NEW YORK: With speed at the top of the lineup and power in the middle, the Mets boast the best lineup in the NL playoffs, second only to the Yankees in the postseason. Leadoff man and shortstop Jose Reyes stole 64 bases, Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran combined for 79 homers and 230 RBIs, and third baseman David Wright, even with a little dog-days slump, hit .309 with 26 homers and 116 RBIs.

EDGE: Mets

Defense

LOS ANGELES: Furcal is the heart of the infield, a strong-armed shortstop with seven years as a starter, though he still gets sloppy at times (27 errors). He has to hold up an aging and short-ranged Kent at second and a young third baseman in Wilson Betemit, but Garciaparra, when he's healthy, holds his own at first (only four errors). Drew plays a cautious right field, rookie Andre Ethier is OK in left and weak-armed Lofton is serviceable, at best, as an every-day center fielder. The Dodgers love catcher Russell Martin.

NEW YORK: Reyes can be fantastic sometimes, wide-ranging and flashy. Beltran, in center, is the young captain of the outfield and led NL center fielders in outfield assists (13). He's flanked by two aging players, Cliff Floyd in left and Shawn Green in right. Delgado is limited at first base, and Wright vacillates between spectacular and boneheaded at third (19 errors). Catcher Paul Lo Duca is not particularly good at throwing out runners.

EDGE: Mets

Bottom line

The Mets were considered a lock in the NL before Martinez was KO'd from the postseason with a variety of injuries. Without him, their rotation is suspect, and maybe worse. Still, they have two major plusses on their side: 1) a very good bullpen that can mask a lot of problems in the rotation, and 2) a lineup that can outslug just about anyone. The Dodgers have pitching -- their bullpen is a savior too -- but there's real concern that Penny's achy back could throw an already thin rotation into chaos. Plus, their lineup is just too streaky and too prone to injury.

PREDICTION: Mets in four