From bellwethers to shot hogs, the top guys to know

Four questions -- which have nothing to do with RPI, SOS or bracketology and everything to do with individual scorers -- entering the NCAA tournament:

1. Which prominent* scorers have the biggest impact on their teams' winning or losing?

The nation's biggest harbingers of success are not its biggest stars: Duke's J.J. Redick has averaged 29.7 points in the Blue Devils' three losses -- 1.9 points above his average. And Gonzaga's Adam Morrison averaged 31.7 points in the Bulldogs' three losses -- 3.3 more than his average. The All-Bellwether team is full of less-heralded names such as Roby, Novak, Davis and Downey -- shutting down these guys in the tournament may be the key to an early upset.

An extensive search of conference-only game logs from likely major-conference (including the Missouri Valley) NCAA tournament teams yielded this top 10, with Colorado's Richard Roby at No. 1 (*by prominent, we mean in their teams' top three scorers):

The most interesting name on this list is at No. 3: Michigan State's Paul Davis. The Spartans have two other big-time scorers in Maurice Ager and Shannon Brown, both of whom average as many as or more points than Davis, but the data suggests the senior big man has the biggest bearing on a very mercurial MSU team's results. As the Spartans stumbled to an 0-2 start in the Big Ten, Davis scored 12 in a loss to Illinois and just two in a defeat to Wisconsin. And when the Spartans rebounded to win their next three conference games, so did Davis -- he averaged 20 in that stretch, as Michigan State downed Indiana, Ohio State and Iowa. Davis, along with Cincinnati's Devan Downey and the Hawkeyes' Adam Haluska, are the only players to make the top 10 that don't lead their team in scoring.

2. Which of the nation's top 10 tournament-bound scorers get the job done away from home -- and which of them don't?

Big-time scorers need to be able to adjust to a series of unfamiliar rims in order to thrive in the Big Dance. When Redick walked into New Jersey's Meadowlands on Dec. 10 for the Duke-Texas game, he said he liked the "aesthetics" of the place ... and proceeded to light up the Longhorns for 41 points. Redick's scoring average actually increased by 1.7 points in road and neutral-site games this season.

The following chart looks at the 10 best scorers likely to compete in the NCAA tournament, comparing their overall averages (from all regular-season games) with their averages at road and neutral gyms:

The figures seem to indicate that the best scorers are the ones least affected by their surroundings: Nick Fazekas, Morrison and Redick are regarded as three of the most efficient offensive players in the country (in kenpom.com's offensive ratings), and they're 1-2-3 on this list. Fazekas did some of his biggest damage in arguably Nevada's two biggest games of the season, scoring 35 in a two-point upset of Kansas and 24 in a December loss at UCLA. Only three of the players in the top 10 saw their averages decline on the road. If Cal makes it off the bubble and into the dance, it should be concerned that the Leon Powe Show does not travel well, dropping nearly 3½ points away from Berkeley.