With big-game Smith at the helm, OSU will prevail

	Troy Smith has amassed 723 yards of total offense, five touchdowns and no interceptions in two wins over Michigan. John Biever/SI
	RELATED • MANDEL: Michigan, dominant D-line will win
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• To read SI.com's Stewart Mandel's analysis of why the Wolverines will prevail in this epic battle go here.

Troy Smith's Heisman resume doesn't matter this week. The 26 touchdown passes, the 168.7 quarterback rating, the 2,191 yards, the 11-0 record -- put it all aside. On the eve of The Game, the relevant information about why Ohio State will beat Michigan is four dates in Smith's career as a Buckeye:

No. 1: Nov. 20, 2004, vs. Michigan. Smith passes for 241 yards and two touchdowns, with no interceptions -- and runs for 145 yards and a score -- in a 37-21 win.

No. 2: Nov. 19, 2005, at Michigan. He passes for 300 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions -- and runs for 37 yards and a score -- in a 25-21 win.

No. 3: Jan. 2, 2006, vs. Notre Dame (Fiesta Bowl). He passes for 342 yards and two touchdowns, with no interceptions -- and runs for 66 yards -- in a 34-20 win.

No. 4: Sept. 9, 2006, at Texas. He passes for 269 yards and two touchdowns, with no interceptions, in a 24-7 win.

In college football, there are regular games, the kind where you're pressure-free, facing Illinois on ESPN Plus. There are big games, where you're hosting Penn State on ABC regional, or are at Iowa under the lights. And then, there are games that belong on an entirely different level. BCS bowl games. Nos. 1-vs.-2 games. Epic rivalry games. The kind, like the one that will take place on Saturday in the Horseshoe, that transcend the scene in Columbus or Ann Arbor and become major national events -- big enough to say, hold up the vote count in a key U.S. Congressional race.

And what happens when Smith plays in one of these transcendent games? He delivers a sublime performance -- every time. He avoids throwing even a single interception -- every time. And he wins -- every time.

In this unpredictable season, where upsets have muddled the BCS picture on an almost weekly basis, there is no safer bet on a critical Saturday than Troy Smith. He's a team-first guy who will try to convince you just that when it comes to OSU's dominance of Michigan by saying, "I don't think it's just me." The bottom line, however, is that clutch players decide critical games. Michigan's defense will be the best the Buckeyes have faced this season, but as wideout Brian Hartline said this week, it all comes down to Smith: "We feel like, with Troy, we can't lose."

Smith is not infallible; he had two games this season in which he threw more interceptions than touchdowns (against Penn State on Sept. 23 and Illinois on Nov. 4), and has made fewer big plays with his feet, averaging just 20.1 rushing yards per game. But his decreased willingness to run, some opponents think, is a positive sign. Said Northwestern linebacker Adam Kadela, whose Wildcats lost 54-10 to OSU on Nov. 11: "[Smith] has definitely matured over the years as a quarterback. ... If someone is shut down, he's not just going to tuck it and run like some quarterbacks would. He can read and find an open man."

In that final tuneup against Northwestern, Smith checked down so deep against the 'Cats' zone that he found the little-used Hartline -- who had no touchdown receptions in the Buckeyes' first 10 games -- for two scores. Smith has two elite targets in Ted Ginn Jr. (51 catches) and Anthony Gonzalez (45), but it's a testament to his patience that seven OSU players have at least 10 receptions. Smith is truly seeing the whole field.

Smith enters this, the penultimate, transcendent game of his college career, more prepared and mature than ever. He has a multitude of weapons at his disposal, and those elusive feet in reserve, should the Wolverines' big, bad D-line start causing problems. After the gun sounds, with the scoreboard reading Ohio State 21, Michigan 17, coach Lloyd Carr will have to offer up the same, reasonable explanation he gave for last year's loss:

"In the end, Troy Smith made too many plays."