Defense, experience key to San Antonio's success

What the Mavs need to do

	Spurs vs. Mavericks Season Series: Tied 2-2 (1) GAME DATE/TIME 1 @SAS Sun., 5/7, 1 ET 2 @SAS Tue., 5/9, 9:30 ET 3 @DAL Sat., 5/13, 5 ET 4 @DAL Mon., 5/15 9:30 ET 5 @SAS Wed., 5/17, TBD 6 @DAL Fri., 5/19, TBD 7 @SAS Mon., 5/22, TBD (4)
	Tony Parker averaged 18.9 points and 5.8 assists in the regular season, but his bruised leg could cause problems. Tim Heitman/NBAE via Getty Images

Slow down Tony Parker, and be patient on offense. With Tim Duncan limited this season by a nagging foot injury, Parker emerged as the Spurs' catalyst. In some ways he'll be more dangerous than Duncan in this series, since the Mavs have two capable big men in DeSagana Diop and Erick Dampier to defend the low post. Mavs point guard Jason Terry must slow Parker (see below) so that he can't create all those open looks for teammates. Despite its major improvement on defense this season, Dallas has struggled at times to stop big perimeter scorers (see Kobe Bryant, 62 points in three quarters). The Mavs also ranked just 19th in the NBA in defending the arc. Terry, Dirk Nowitzki, Adrian Griffin, Josh Howard, Marquis Daniels, Jerry Stackhouse and the rest won't be able to get away with it against Manu Ginobili and San Antonio's bevy of shooters. Basically, Dallas is better off letting Duncan get his 20-25 points and stopping Parker and the other Spurs. Offensively, the Mavs just need to be patient. Nowitzki is one of the game's best scorers, but he faces a tough matchup in the always pesky Bruce Bowen. Terry, Howard, Daniels and Stackhouse are going to need to be aggressive with the ball, while not forcing things. Dallas has an overall advantage in quickness on the perimeter, since San Antonio has some older players. If the Mavs are patient in the half-court and swing the ball, they should be able to find cracks in the Spurs' defense.

What the Spurs need to do

Rebound and defend. It sounds simple, but it won't be easy. The Mavs boast one of the game's premier scorers in Nowitzki and an offense that averaged 99.1 points during the season. Dallas is also good on the backboards; they ranked third in the NBA in total rebound percentage. Meanwhile, San Antonio didn't do a good job on the glass in its last series against the Kings, one of the reasons it struggled in Games 2-5. The good news for the Spurs is that they have a defensive mind-set that has been honed by years of championship runs. With Duncan and the combination of Rasho Nesterovic and Nazr Mohammed, the Spurs can always put two 7-footers on the floor to shut off the rim. If they go small, Robert Horry has the length and smarts to get in there and hold his own. Meanwhile, the 6-foot-7 Bowen usually does a good job of frustrating Nowitzki even though he's much smaller. Throw in Manu Ginobili and his lightning-fast hands, and the Spurs will make the Mavs work for everything in this series. Offensively San Antonio must keep its offense flowing and not rely too much on Duncan in the post. Parker must penetrate and get things going on the pick-and-roll. If he does, Ginobili will find seams in the Mavs' defense and guys like Bowen, Brent Barry, Michael Finley and Nick Van Exel will get open looks and stay in rhythm.

Key matchup

Tony Parker vs. Jason Terry

With Duncan and Nowitzki likely to offset each other, this series could come down to the point guards. Parker has blossomed into an All-Star this season for San Antonio, averaging 18.9 points and 5.8 assists while shooting 54.8 percent from the floor. He is one of the best penetrators in the game and undoubtedly its best finisher. However, Parker has been hobbled of late by a bruised leg suffered in the Kings series, and it is unclear if he will be at 100 percent. Terry is a scorer with a deadly jump shot and is especially dangerous from three-point range. He averaged 17.1 points and 3.8 assists while shooting 47.1 percent from the floor and 41.1 percent from downtown. The Spurs will use Parker in a lot of pick-and-rolls, especially against Nowitzki, to try to force mismatches. Terry must remember to go under screens and stay with Parker at all times to keep him out of the lane. At the other end, Parker must stay out on Terry when he's beyond the arc. Terry is a free agent after the season and might be extra motivated to beat out an All-Star like Parker.

Interesting fact

The Mavs and Spurs have met twice before in the playoffs, with San Antonio winning both times. The Spurs beat the Mavs 4-2 in the Western Conference finals in 2003, and they defeated Dallas 4-1 in the Western semis in 2001.

The pick

The Mavs are rested and oh so hungry to show the world they are for real. But the Spurs have the better defense, more experience and the home court advantage. Assuming Parker's bruised leg isn't too bad, San Antonio will survive in a nail-biter. Spurs in seven.