Texans have three choices to start off 2006 draft

	Former USC star Reggie Bush has been bulking up in the offseason to prepare for life in the NFL. John Biever/SI
	RELATED • BANKS: Revised first-round mock draft • BANKS: 32 fearless offseason predictions
	MAILBAG Peter King will answer your questions each week in Monday Morning Quarterback: Tuesday Edition. Your name: Your e-mail address: Your home town: Enter your question:

"With the first overall pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans ...''

-- NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue, 68 days from today.

MONTCLAIR, N.J. -- ... do one of three things.

First off, welcome to 2006 NFL draft coverage. As I've said many times before, we put far, far too much emphasis on it, but in the immortal words of Bill Belichick, it is what it is. And we're going to start covering the draft in earnest this week at the NFL Scouting Combine -- I'll be there, along with your favorite SI.commer, Don "Donnie Brasco'' Banks -- looking over 330 new victims ... I mean, prospects, beginning on Thursday.

The first question on everyone's mind is this: What will the Texans do? As I said, they've got three choices:

1. Trade the pick. (The least likely scenario. Maybe a five percent chance. Only way they'll do it, I think, is if they could trade down a few spots and still get a stud like 10-year left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson in addition to a sick draft-pick haul.)

2. Draft USC running back Reggie Bush. (The most likely scenario. Probably a 75 percent chance. And from what I hear, new coach Gary Kubiak is already quietly telling good friends like Mike Shanahan that the Texans will take Bush.)

3. Draft Texas quarterback Vince Young. (Not a good chance. Maybe a one-in-five shot. Maybe. But if he's really good in his workout in Austin on March 22, and Kubiak loves him, I suppose it's possible they could pick Young and either trade David Carr for a very good draft pick or hang on to Carr and trade him next year.)

Now, there's one issue from the end of the season, when it was widely reported that the Texans had determined internally that they were definitely going to take Bush, the exciting Heisman Trophy winner. And it concerns whether the Texans and their new coach are solid on Bush. You get the feeling that GM Charlie Casserly and the Texans' scouts love the kid, and now that Kubiak is on board, he's come to love him too. But that feeling, Casserly told me with conviction on Friday night, is premature.

"There's been no guarantee that we'll take Bush,'' Casserly told me. "We're wide open. We're wide open for trades for the pick. The way I see it, here are our options. Keep David Carr and take Reggie Bush. Keep David Carr and draft Vince Young. Take Vince Young and see what we can get in trade for David Carr. And trade down. We're going to visit with people at Indianapolis and take our time. Nothing will get done, I wouldn't think, until the week before the draft.''

My biggest question about Bush has been -- and continues to be -- this: Can he be an every-down player in the NFL? This is a guy who rushed more than 20 times twice in a three-year USC career and who, playing at around 198 pounds, will have massive durability questions in the NFL.