First round still potentially loaded with surprises

	Where USC QB Matt Leinart will end up is a big topic of discussion. Peter Read Miller/SI
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NEW ORLEANS -- I am taking the lazy way out in my mock draft compared with my colleague Paul Zimmerman, whose annual mock draft in Sports Illustrated is gospel for me. Dr. Z's mock was due last Sunday, and he felt totally fatigued after filing it. Me? I take my best guess and hope for 10 direct hits. It's the best I can hope for most years, because of the rampant lying around the league.

And just so you'll be able to follow me this weekend, I'll be writing from the Saints facility on Saturday. I'll be filing a series of mini-blogs starting after the first five picks, with the latest news I can dig up. Then I'll have my normal columns on Monday and Tuesday.

Here goes:

1. Houston: RB Reggie Bush, USC. In the immortal words of Bill Parcells, I reserve the right to change my mind on this one. The Texans badly want to have a deal by Saturday morning. If they aren't close to signing Bush, they certainly could switch to Mario Williams.

2. New Orleans: T D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Virginia. So the Saints, sitting happily at No. 2, have this dilemma. In the unlikely event that Bush slips, they'll pounce on him. New Orleans has Bush No. 1 on their board. The dilemma is that they've got four guys very close for No. 2 -- Ferguson, Williams, A.J. Hawk and Matt Leinart. Leinart's out, of course, because of the Drew Brees signing. The Saints would be happy with any of the other three, though I think they'd be happiest with Ferguson. If any team makes the right offer, the Saints could easily trade down a couple of spots and take Hawk.

3. Tennessee: QB Matt Leinart, USC. OK, so I'm one of the few people in the last 24 hours not predicting the Titans taking Vince Young. Call it a hunch. The best under-the-surface story in this draft is how Tennessee owner Bud Adams, who lives in Houston 365 days a year, wants to stick it to the politicos there and bring the local hero, Young, into Reliant Stadium every season for the next 10 years to torment the Texans. I don't know. I'm not buying it. GM Floyd Reese isn't paying an offensive coordinator a mil a year just to ignore the coordinator's advice.

4. New York Jets: DE Mario Williams, N.C. State. This is where I start being wrong. The Jets still think they might be able to -- and I stress might -- trade their low pick and two high ones to move up in the first round and get Jay Cutler with their second pick. By the way, today's rumor du jour had the Jets interested in Texas safety Michael Huff either here or trading down a few spots. No way. New York is not going to pick Huff.

5. Green Bay: LB A.J. Hawk, Ohio State. The Pack will go to bed thinking A.J. Hawk. They'll wake up with a choice of Hawk, Ferguson, Vernon Davis or Huff, all of whom would fill one of Green Bay's serious needs. Hawk changes the attitude of the locker room by midseason.