AFC South

	Former Colts linebacker David Thornton should bolster Tennessee's defense. US Presswire

1. Indianapolis, 12-4. Not a lot not to like, except maybe a big run-stuffer on a team that allowed 4.4 yards per carry a year ago. I believe Adam Vinatieri will be OK and will win a game or two the Colts would have lost in the past, and I believe they'll make up for the loss of outside 'backer David Thornton, a Tony Dungy favorite, with Gilbert Gardner, who had an impressive and stout preseason. One word of caution, though: Right out of the chute come five pass-rushers on the Giants that Indy had better block. Watch out for Mathias Kiwanuka, Tarik Glenn.

2. Jacksonville, 9-7. No more sneaking up on folks. The league knows who you are, Paul Spicer and Reggie Hayward. Soon, teams will know about Maurice Jones-Drew, the shot-out-of-a-cannon, 5-7 rookie ball of energy who will impact the offense. But opening with Dallas, Pittsburgh and Indy isn't an ideal beginning for a playoff express run, and finishing with New England and Kansas City (at Arrowhead) isn't any reward either.

3. Tennessee, 7-9. Though I worry about Jeff Fisher's favorite defensive player, Pacman Jones, staying out of jail, I see the Titans being three wins better, and not just because of Vince Young. They're better at linebacker with David Thornton and at safety with Chris Hope, and they should be better at receiver -- if David Givens can stay on the field with his bad hamstring. His old Raiders 'mates think Kerry Collins wants to be a $2 million-a-year clipboard holder, not an NFL starter, and he should get his wish by November, when Young should be ready.

4. Houston, 5-11. Bill Polian told me for 10 minutes this summer how good Houston is going to be -- and soon. That must be why he's won Executive of the Year a jillion times and I'm up at 4:30 in the morning writing this. I just don't see it -- yet. But I like Gary Kubiak a lot, and if anyone can turn David Carr around, I think Kubiak can. He'll make a running game out of chicken feathers. I don't see the ingredients there on defense yet.

AFC West

1. Denver, 10-6. I think this is about the happiest Mike Shanahan has been with his receiving game in five years, since before Ed McCaffery broke his leg against the Giants the night before 9/11. Rod Smith is still good and he's paired with a physical receiver in Javon Walker, instead of the contact-avoiding Ashley Lelie. And there's a tight end in reserve, 237-pound second-rounder Tony Scheffler of Western Michigan, whom Shanahan loves. Denver will rush the quarterback by committee, and if the defense is good enough, this is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

2. * San Diego, 10-6. I really loved the defense -- until Steve Foley got shot three times after being chased by a cop Saturday night. Foley's a physical, 265-pound pass- and run-stopping fiend who was perfect in Marty Schottenheimer's heavy defense, and now we don't know if he'll play this year. Until Foley's incident, the biggest worry was whether Philip Rivers could reprise Brees' last two seasons. I'm bullish on Rivers, but he hasn't done it yet.

3. Kansas City, 6-10. This is the team that every fantasy player loves, but the Chiefs still haven't proved they can play defense. They surrendered to the Giants in a playoff-type game last December, gave up 28, 30 and 37 points to San Diego, Denver and Philly, and didn't get nearly enough production out of first-rounder Derrick Johnson, who had but two sacks. Herman Edwards has to lean on Gunther Cunningham's unit to be better.

4. Oakland, 4-12. I can see the headline in the Oakland Tribune on Oct. 9, after the Raiders drop an embarrassing 17-7 game to the crosstown 49ers: "Brooks Throws 5 Interceptions, Benched by Shell.'' It's coming, folks. Don't know when. But Aaron Brooks will break your hearts.

AFC Playoffs

Seeds: 1. Indianapolis. 2. New England. 3. Cincinnati. 4. Denver. 5. Miami. 6. San Diego.

Wild Card: Cincinnati over San Diego, Miami over Denver.

Divisional round: Indianapolis over Miami, New England over Cincinnati.

AFC Championship: Indianapolis over New England.

Super Bowl

Dallas over Indianapolis.